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We propose a technique called Optimal Analysis-Specific Importance Sampling (OASIS) to reduce the number of simulated events required for a high-energy experimental analysis to reach a target sensitivity. We provide recipes to obtain the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2021-02-17 Konstantin T. Matchev , Prasanth Shyamsundar

We investigate lower bounds on the subgeometric convergence of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo under any adaptation strategy. In particular, we prove general lower bounds in total variation and on the weak convergence rate under general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Austin Brown , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

Approximate inference in probability models is a fundamental task in machine learning. Approximate inference provides powerful tools to Bayesian reasoning, decision making, and Bayesian deep learning. The main goal is to estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-10 Jun Han

In this work, we develop an importance sampling estimator by coupling the reduced-order model and the generative model in a problem setting of uncertainty quantification. The target is to estimate the probability that the quantity of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-20 Xiaoliang Wan , Shuangqing Wei

Annealed importance sampling (AIS) and related algorithms are highly effective tools for marginal likelihood estimation, but are not fully differentiable due to the use of Metropolis-Hastings correction steps. Differentiability is a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-28 Guodong Zhang , Kyle Hsu , Jianing Li , Chelsea Finn , Roger Grosse

Auxiliary variable methods such as the Parallel Tempering and the cluster Monte Carlo methods generate samples that follow a target distribution by using proposal and auxiliary distributions. In sampling from complex distributions, these…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-16 Takamitsu Araki , Kazushi Ikeda

We consider minimizing finite-sum and expectation objective functions via Hessian-averaging based subsampled Newton methods. These methods allow for gradient inexactness and have fixed per-iteration Hessian approximation costs. The recent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-15 Thomas O'Leary-Roseberry , Raghu Bollapragada

This paper presents a tool for addressing a key component in many algorithms for planning robot trajectories under uncertainty: evaluation of the safety of a robot whose actions are governed by a closed-loop feedback policy near a nominal…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-06-05 Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

The importance weighted autoencoder (IWAE) (Burda et al., 2016) is a popular variational-inference method which achieves a tighter evidence bound (and hence a lower bias) than standard variational autoencoders by optimising a multi-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-20 Axel Finke , Alexandre H. Thiery

Large deviation theory has provided important clues for the choice of importance sampling measures for Monte Carlo evaluation of exceedance probabilities. However, Glasserman and Wang [Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 731--746] have given…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

In this study, variable acceptance sampling plans under Type I hybrid censoring is designed for a lot of independent and identical units with exponential lifetimes using Bayesian estimate of the parameter $\vartheta$. This approach is new…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Ashlyn Maria Mathai , Mahesh Kumar

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is an iterative method to maximize the log-likelihood function for parameter estimation. Previous works on the convergence analysis of the EM algorithm have established results on the asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-31 Chong Wu , Can Yang , Hongyu Zhao , Ji Zhu

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample from unnormalized probability distributions and offer guarantees of exact sampling. However, in the continuous case, unfavorable geometry of the target distribution can greatly limit the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-09 Zengyi Li , Yubei Chen , Friedrich T. Sommer

Kernel matrices (e.g. Gram or similarity matrices) are essential for many state-of-the-art approaches to classification, clustering, and dimensionality reduction. For large datasets, the cost of forming and factoring such kernel matrices…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-21 Raajen Patel , Thomas A. Goldstein , Eva L. Dyer , Azalia Mirhoseini , Richard G. Baraniuk

Independent sampling of orthogonal polynomial bases via Monte Carlo is of interest for uncertainty quantification of models, using Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions. It is known that bounding the spectral radius of a random matrix consisting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-23 Jerrad Hampton , Alireza Doostan

The adaptive lasso refers to a class of methods that use weighted versions of the $L_1$-norm penalty, with weights derived from an initial estimate of the parameter vector to be estimated. Irrespective of the method chosen to compute this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-16 Ballout Nadim , Etievant Lola , Viallon Vivian

We propose the use of a simple intuitive principle for measuring algorithmic classification bias: the significance of the differences in a classifier's error rates across the various demographics is inversely commensurate with the sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-08 Ioannis Ivrissimtzis , Shauna Concannon , Matthew Houliston , Graham Roberts

We derive new theoretical results on the properties of the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (adaptive lasso) for time series regression models. In particular, we investigate the question of how to conduct finite…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-06 Francesco Audrino , Lorenzo Camponovo

We propose bandit importance sampling (BIS), a powerful importance sampling framework tailored for settings in which evaluating the target density is computationally expensive. BIS facilitates accurate sampling while minimizing the required…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Takuo Matsubara , Andrew Duncan , Simon Cotter , Konstantinos Zygalakis

Importance sampling (IS) is a technique that enables statistical estimation of output performance at multiple input distributions from a single nominal input distribution. IS is commonly used in Monte Carlo simulation for variance reduction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-07 Yijuan Liang , Guangxin Jiang , Michael C. Fu