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Whether Large Language Models (LLMs) develop coherent internal world models remains a core debate. While conventional Next-Token Prediction (NTP) focuses on one-step-ahead supervision, Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) has shown promise in…

In this work, we evaluate the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in building Bayesian Networks (BNs) by approximating domain expert priors. LLMs have demonstrated potential as factual knowledge bases; however, their capability to…

Variational inference methods have been shown to lead to significant improvements in the computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian inference in mixed multinomial logit models when compared to standard Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to…

Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint…

Predicting with missing inputs challenges even parametric models, as parameter estimation alone is insufficient for prediction on incomplete data. While several works study prediction in linear models, we focus on logistic models, where…

The beta distribution serves as a canonical tool for modeling probabilities in statistics and machine learning. However, there is limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for modeling dependent…

Variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a fast and computationally-efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for scalable Bayesian estimation of mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) models. It has been established…

This paper investigates two prominent probabilistic neural modeling paradigms: Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) and Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) for uncertainty-aware nonlinear regression. While BNNs incorporate epistemic uncertainty by…

High-dimensional data of discrete and skewed nature is commonly encountered in high-throughput sequencing studies. Analyzing the network itself or the interplay between genes in this type of data continues to present many challenges. As…

Bayes factor, defined as the ratio of the marginal likelihood functions of two competing models, is the natural Bayesian procedure for model selection. Marginal likelihoods are usually computationally demanding and complex. This scenario is…

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

We introduce LatentTrack (LT), a sequential neural architecture for online probabilistic prediction under nonstationary dynamics. LT performs causal Bayesian filtering in a low-dimensional latent space and uses a lightweight hypernetwork to…

Latent space models are frequently used for modeling single-layer networks and include many popular special cases, such as the stochastic block model and the random dot product graph. However, they are not well-developed for more complex…

The logistic specification has been used extensively in non-Bayesian statistics to model the dependence of discrete outcomes on the values of specified covariates. Because the likelihood function is globally weakly concave estimation by…

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are widely used to discover latent structure in data, but their success hinges on selecting an appropriate model design. In practice, model specification is difficult and often requires iterative…

The Latent Block Model (LBM) is a model-based method to cluster simultaneously the $d$ columns and $n$ rows of a data matrix. Parameter estimation in LBM is a difficult and multifaceted problem. Although various estimation strategies have…

Latent class model (LCM), which is a finite mixture of different categorical distributions, is one of the most widely used models in statistics and machine learning fields. Because of its non-continuous nature and the flexibility in shape,…

Presence-only data are referred to situations in which, given a censoring mechanism, a binary response can be observed only with respect to on outcome, usually called \textit{presence}. In this work we present a Bayesian approach to the…

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…