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Gaussian processes (GPs), or distributions over arbitrary functions in a continuous domain, can be generalized to the multi-output case: a linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is one approach. LMCs estimate and exploit correlations…

The latent position model (LPM) is a popular method used in network data analysis where nodes are assumed to be positioned in a $p$-dimensional latent space. The latent shrinkage position model (LSPM) is an extension of the LPM which…

We introduce the Locally Linear Latent Variable Model (LL-LVM), a probabilistic model for non-linear manifold discovery that describes a joint distribution over observations, their manifold coordinates and locally linear maps conditioned on…

In the last few decades both the volume of high-quality observing data on variable stars and common access to them have boomed; however the standard used methods of data processing and interpretation have lagged behind this progress. The…

Parameter estimation is a foundational step in statistical modeling, enabling us to extract knowledge from data and apply it effectively. Bayesian estimation of parameters incorporates prior beliefs with observed data to infer distribution…

The Poisson log-normal model is a latent variable model that provides a generic framework for the analysis of multivariate count data. Inferring its parameters can be a daunting task since the conditional distribution of the latent…

We propose a novel class of language models, Latent Thought Models (LTMs), which incorporate explicit latent thought vectors that follow an explicit prior model in latent space. These latent thought vectors guide the autoregressive…

Over the last two decades, the Latent Position Model (LPM) has become a prominent tool to obtain model-based visualizations of networks. However, the geometric structure of the LPM is inherently symmetric, in the sense that outgoing and…

Two popular approaches for relating correlated measurements of a non-Gaussian response variable to a set of predictors are to fit a marginal model using generalized estimating equations and to fit a generalized linear mixed model by…

Multinomial logistic regression is one of the most popular models for modelling the effect of explanatory variables on a subject choice between a set of specified options. This model has found numerous applications in machine learning,…

We introduce a Bayesian approach for analyzing high-dimensional multinomial data that are referenced over space and time. In particular, the proportions associated with multinomial data are assumed to have a logit link to a latent…

Modeling binary and categorical data is one of the most commonly encountered tasks of applied statisticians and econometricians. While Bayesian methods in this context have been available for decades now, they often require a high level of…

We present the Mixed Likelihood Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), capable of modeling data with attributes of different types. The standard formulation of GP-LVM assumes that each observation is drawn from a Gaussian…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have been long considered an ideal, yet unscalable solution for improving the robustness and the predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks. While they could capture more accurately the posterior…

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit probabilistic output characteristics, yet conventional evaluation frameworks rely on deterministic scalar metrics. This study introduces a Bayesian approach for LLM capability assessment that integrates…

We systematically investigate multi-token prediction (MTP) capabilities within LLMs pre-trained for next-token prediction (NTP). We first show that such models inherently possess MTP capabilities via numerical marginalization over…

Max-Linear Bayesian Networks (MLBNs) provide a powerful framework for causal inference in extreme-value settings; we consider MLBNs with noise parameters with a given topology in terms of the max-plus algebra by taking its logarithm. Then,…

Real-time nonlinear Bayesian filtering algorithms are overwhelmed by data volume, velocity and increasing complexity of computational models. In this paper, we propose a novel ensemble based nonlinear Bayesian filtering approach which only…

Binary logit (BNL) and multinomial logit (MNL) models are the two most widely used discrete choice models for travel behavior modeling and prediction. However, in many scenarios, the collected data for those models are subject to…

This paper develops nonparametric estimation for discrete choice models based on the mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. It has been shown that MMNL models encompass all discrete choice models derived under the assumption of random…