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Related papers: Large Deviations of Bivariate Gaussian Extrema

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In this paper, we estimate the sparse dependence structure in the tail region of a multivariate random vector, potentially of high dimension. The tail dependence is modeled via a graphical model for extremes embedded in the H\"usler-Reiss…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Phyllis Wan , Chen Zhou

It is well-known that large deviations of random walks driven by independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables are governed by the so-called principle of one large jump. We note that further subtleties hold for such…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-30 Harald Bernhard , Bikramjit Das

Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…

Applications · Statistics 2011-09-27 Marta Ferreira

Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Benjamin Köhler , Anton J. Heckens , Thomas Guhr

This paper studies extremal quantiles under two-way clustered dependence. We show that the limiting distribution of unconditional intermediate-order tail quantiles is Gaussian. This result is notable because two-way clustering typically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-19 Harold D. Chiang , Ryutah Kato , Yuya Sasaki

The relationship between a response variable and its covariates can vary significantly, especially in scenarios where covariates take on extremely high or low values. This paper introduces a max-linear tail regression model specifically…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Zhengjun Zhang

Determining the causes of extreme events is a fundamental question in many scientific fields. An important aspect when modelling multivariate extremes is the tail dependence. In application, the extreme dependence structure may…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-21 Juraj Bodik , Linda Mhalla , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Identifying directions where extreme events occur is a major challenge in multivariate extreme value analysis. In this paper, we use the concept of sparse regular variation introduced by Meyer and Wintenberger (2021)} to infer the tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Nicolas Meyer , Olivier Wintenberger

A central issue in the theory of extreme values focuses on suitable conditions such that the well-known results for the limiting distributions of the maximum of i.i.d. sequences can be applied to stationary ones. In this context, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-07 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

Large deviation behavior of the largest eigenvalue $\lambda_1$ of Gaussian networks (Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$ with i.i.d. Gaussian weights on the edges) has been the topic of considerable interest. Recently in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-17 Shirshendu Ganguly , Kyeongsik Nam

Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 John H. J. Einmahl , Laurens de Haan , Deyuan Li

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

Multivariate extreme value theory is concerned with modeling the joint tail behavior of several random variables. Existing work mostly focuses on asymptotic dependence, where the probability of observing a large value in one of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-11 Michaël Lalancette , Sebastian Engelke , Stanislav Volgushev

We develop an asymptotic theory for extremes in decomposable graphical models by presenting results applicable to a range of extremal dependence types. Specifically, we investigate the weak limit of the distribution of suitably normalised…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-13 Adrian Casey , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Nina Gantert , Joscha Prochno , Philipp Tuchel

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Bikramjit Das

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-25 Roy Wagner

Using loop equations, we compute the large deviation function of the maximum eigenvalue to the right of the spectrum in the Gaussian beta matrix ensembles, to all orders in 1/N. We then give a physical derivation of the all order asymptotic…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2012-08-22 Gaëtan Borot , Céline Nadal

We find the exponential exact two-terms non-asymptotic expression for the maximum and minimum distribution of a non-Gaussian, in general case, random vector.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-09 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota