Related papers: Importance subsampling: improving power system pla…
This paper introduces a generalised version of importance subsampling for time series reduction/aggregation in optimisation-based power system planning models. Recent studies indicate that reliably determining optimal electricity…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…
Seasonal climate variations affect electricity demand, which in turn affects month-to-month electricity planning and operations. Electricity system planning at the monthly timescale can be improved by adapting climate forecasts to estimate…
The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…
This paper introduces a new approach to quantify the impact of forward propagated demand and weather uncertainty on power system planning and operation models. Recent studies indicate that such sampling uncertainty, originating from demand…
Long-term planning of a robust power system requires the understanding of changing demand patterns. Electricity demand is highly weather sensitive. Thus, the supply side variation from introducing intermittent renewable sources, juxtaposed…
We suggest a new methodology for designing robust energy systems. For this, we investigate so-called near-optimal solutions to energy system optimisation models; solutions whose objective values deviate only marginally from the optimum.…
To reduce computational complexity, macro-energy system models commonly implement reduced time-series data. For renewable energy systems dependent on seasonal storage and characterized by intermittent renewables, like wind and solar,…
Intermittent renewable energy resources like wind and solar pose great uncertainty of multiple time scales, from minutes to years, on the design and operation of power systems. Energy system optimization models have been developed to find…
The growth in variable renewables such as solar and wind is increasing the impact of climate uncertainty in energy system planning. Addressing this ideally requires high-resolution time series spanning at least a few decades. However,…
Power system expansion models are a widely used tool for planning powersystems, especially considering the integration of large shares of renewableresources. The backbone of these models is an optimization problem, whichdepends on a number…
In highly renewable power systems the increased weather dependence can result in new resilience challenges, such as renewable energy droughts, or a lack of sufficient renewable generation at times of high demand. The weather conditions…
Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it…
Future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems will be dominated by renewable energy technologies providing variable supply subject to uncertain weather conditions. For this setting, we propose an algorithm for capacity expansion planning: We…
Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…
We explore the crucial interplay between climate change and power system planning, highlighting the urgent need to systematically integrate climate information into energy system studies. Climate change impacts the energy sector on multiple…
A novel experimental approach of inter- and intramodel comparisons is conducted with five power market models to give recommendations for modelers working on decarbonization pathways of Europe until 2050. The experiments investigate the…
Accurate projections of wind energy potential under climate change are critical for effective long-term energy planning. While previous studies have highlighted the value of multi-model ensembles, they often fall short in capturing the full…
Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond…
Modelling renewable energy systems is a computationally-demanding task due to the high fluctuation of supply and demand time series. To reduce the scale of these, this paper discusses different methods for their aggregation into typical…