Related papers: Predicting the scoring time in hockey
We build a Bayesian contextual classification model using an optimistic score ratio for robust binary classification when there is limited information on the class-conditional, or contextual, distribution. The optimistic score searches for…
Score-based generative models (SGMs) aim at estimating a target data distribution by learning score functions using only noise-perturbed samples from the target.Recent literature has focused extensively on assessing the error between the…
This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…
The analysis of non-real-valued data, such as binary time series, has attracted great interest in recent years. This manuscript proposes a post-selection estimator for estimating the coefficient matrices of a high-dimensional generalized…
Optimality results for two outstanding Bayesian estimation problems are given in this paper: the estimation of the sampling distribution for the squared total variation function and the estimation of the density for the $L^1$-squared loss…
Density estimation, which estimates the distribution of data, is an important category of probabilistic machine learning. A family of density estimators is mixture models, such as Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) by expectation maximization.…
Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs), especially denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). A key result in this area shows that with accurate score estimates, SGMs can efficiently generate samples…
In order to cluster or partition data, we often use Expectation-and-Maximization (EM) or Variational approximation with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which is a parametric probability density function represented as a weighted sum of…
Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively "denoises"…
In this work, we compare several different modeling approaches for count data applied to the scores of handball matches with regard to their predictive performances based on all matches from the four previous IHF World Men's Handball…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…
The expected goal provides a more representative measure of the team and player performance which also suit the low-scoring nature of football instead of score in modern football. The score of a match involves randomness and often may not…
This paper reviews the growing field of Bayesian prediction. Bayes point and interval prediction are defined and exemplified and situated in statistical prediction more generally. Then, four general approaches to Bayes prediction are…
Predictive modeling uncovers knowledge and insights regarding a hypothesized data generating mechanism (DGM). Results from different studies on a complex DGM, derived from different data sets, and using complicated models and algorithms,…
Expected goals (xG) models estimate the probability that a shot results in a goal from its context (e.g., location, pressure), but they operate only on observed shots. We propose xG+, a possession-level framework that first estimates the…
Denoising diffusion models are a popular class of generative models providing state-of-the-art results in many domains. One adds gradually noise to data using a diffusion to transform the data distribution into a Gaussian distribution.…
Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models for describing complex joint probability distributions. The main problem for BNs is inference: Determine the probability of an event given observed evidence. Since exact inference…
This paper concerns the robust regression model when the number of predictors and the number of observations grow in a similar rate. Theory for M-estimators in this regime has been recently developed by several authors [El Karoui et al.,…
The widely recommended procedure of Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the M-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation…
The English Premier League is well-known for being not only one of the most popular professional sports leagues in the world, but also one of the toughest competitions to predict. The first purpose of this research was to verify the…