English
Related papers

Related papers: Probabilistic Load Forecasting via Point Forecast …

200 papers

Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-19 Soon Hoe Lim , Yijin Wang , Annan Yu , Emma Hart , Michael W. Mahoney , Xiaoye S. Li , N. Benjamin Erichson

The recent abundance of data on electricity consumption at different scales opens new challenges and highlights the need for new techniques to leverage information present at finer scales in order to improve forecasts at wider scales. In…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-23 Anestis Antoniadis , Solenne Gaucher , Yannig Goude

Predicting the demand for electricity with uncertainty helps in planning and operation of the grid to provide reliable supply of power to the consumers. Machine learning (ML)-based demand forecasting approaches can be categorized into (1)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Yiwei Fu , Nurali Virani , Honggang Wang

Electrical load prediction has become an integral part of power system operation. Deep learning models have found popularity for this purpose. However, to achieve a desired prediction accuracy, they require huge amounts of data for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-16 Nastaran Gholizadeh , Petr Musilek

With the growing popularity of electric vehicles as a means of addressing climate change, concerns have emerged regarding their impact on electric grid management. As a result, predicting EV charging demand has become a timely and important…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Iason Kyriakopoulos , Yannis Theodoridis

Prediction deviations of different uncertainties have varying impacts on downstream decision-making. Improving the prediction accuracy of critical uncertainties with significant impacts on decision-making quality yields better optimization…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-17 Yingrui Zhuang , Lin Cheng , Can Wan , Rui Xie , Ning Qi , Yue Chen

This paper presents a novel method for utilizing fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) to minimize data requirements in load profile analysis, demonstrated through the restoration of missing data in power system load profiles. A two-stage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Yi Hu , Hyeonjin Kim , Kai Ye , Ning Lu

Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-29 Tao Fu , Huifen Zhou , Xu Ma , Z. Jason Hou , Di Wu

Seasonal time series Forecasting remains a challenging problem due to the long-term dependency from seasonality. In this paper, we propose a two-stage framework to forecast univariate seasonal time series. The first stage explicitly learns…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Qingyang Xu , Qingsong Wen , Liang Sun

This paper presents a method to handle renewable source and load uncertainties in Dynamic Day-ahead Optimal Power Flow (DA-OPF) using post-optimal analysis of linear programming problem. The method does not require the uncertainty…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-04-18 Parikshit Pareek , Ashu Verma

Time-series forecasting in real-world applications such as finance and energy often faces challenges due to limited training data and complex, noisy temporal dynamics. Existing deep forecasting models typically supervise predictions using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Jiacheng You , Jingcheng Yang , Yuhang Xie , Zhongxuan Wu , Xiucheng Li , Feng Li , Pengjie Wang , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng , Xinyang Chen

Time series forecasting plays a central role in many real-world applications and has been extensively studied. Most existing approaches rely on deterministic models. However, real-world environments exhibit inherently uncertain and complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Minju Kim , Youngbum Hur

The Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem is a fundamental building block for the optimization of electrical power systems. It is nonlinear and nonconvex and computes the generator setpoints for power and voltage, given a set of load demands. It…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-04 Ferdinando Fioretto , Terrence W. K. Mak , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Ensuring sustainability demands more efficient energy management with minimized energy wastage. Therefore, the power grid of the future should provide an unprecedented level of flexibility in energy management. To that end, intelligent…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-11-29 Daniel L. Marino , Kasun Amarasinghe , Milos Manic

Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructure such as Smart Grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting which, due to its nonlinear nature, remains a challenging task. Recently, deep learning has emerged in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Alberto Gasparin , Slobodan Lukovic , Cesare Alippi

In this paper a model is developed to solve the on/off scheduling of (non-linear) dynamic electric loads based on predictions of the power delivery of a (standalone) solar power source. Knowledge of variations in the solar power output is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-29 Abdulelah H. Habib , Jan Kleissl , Raymond A. de Callafon

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-05 Kostas Hatalis , Alberto J. Lamadrid , Katya Scheinberg , Shalinee Kishore

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Hristos Tyralis , Georgia Papacharalampous

High penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) introduces significant uncertainty and intermittency into microgrid operations, posing challenges to economic and reliable scheduling. To address this, this paper proposes an end-to-end…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-04 Tingwei Cao , Yan Xu

We propose a data-based method to solve a multi-stage stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The framework explicitly combines multi-stage feedback policies with any…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-29 Yi Guo , Kyri Baker , Emiliano Dall'Anese , Zechun Hu , Tyler H. Summers