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This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Danil Kuzin , Olga Isupova , Lyudmila Mihaylova

Gaussian processes are Bayesian non-parametric models used in many areas. In this work, we propose a Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model which can be learned with gradient-based techniques. We demonstrate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-26 Zeel B Patel , Nipun Batra , Kevin Murphy

We develop statistical models for samples of distribution-valued stochastic processes featuring time-indexed univariate distributions, with emphasis on functional principal component analysis. The proposed model presents an intrinsic rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Hang Zhou , Hans-Georg Müller

The analysis of multivariate functional curves has the potential to yield important scientific discoveries in domains such as healthcare, medicine, economics and social sciences. However, it is common for real-world settings to present…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Tui Nolan , Sylvia Richardson , Hélène Ruffieux

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected with measurement errors on discretized grids. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-13 Jingjing Yang , Dennis D. Cox , Jong Soo Lee , Peng Ren , Taeryon Choi

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Hagai Attias

In this paper, we introduce a method for segmenting time series data using tools from Bayesian nonparametrics. We consider the task of temporal segmentation of a set of time series data into representative stationary segments. We use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Olga Mikheeva , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Hedvig Kjellström , Carl Henrik Ek

Gaussian Process State Space Models (GP-SSMs) are a non-parametric model class suitable to represent nonlinear dynamics. They become increasingly popular in data-driven modeling approaches, i.e. when no first-order physics-based models are…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Thomas Beckers , Sandra Hirche

It is increasingly understood that the assumption of stationarity is unrealistic for many spatial processes. In this article, we combine dimension expansion with a spectral method to model big non-stationary spatial fields in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 Hou-Cheng Yang , Jonathan R. Bradley

We introduce a random partition model for Bayesian nonparametric regression. The model is based on infinitely-many disjoint regions of the range of a latent covariate-dependent Gaussian process. Given a realization of the process, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-04 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

In this paper we present a novel inference methodology to perform Bayesian inference for spatiotemporal Cox processes where the intensity function depends on a multivariate Gaussian process. Dynamic Gaussian processes are introduced to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-12 Flávio B. Gonçalves , Dani Gamerman

Spatial fields in the Earth and environmental sciences are often available at multiple scales or resolutions. While coarse-scale data (e.g., from global circulation models) are often abundant, they lack the local detail provided by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Alejandro Calle-Saldarriaga , Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

Bayesian analysis is a framework for parameter estimation that applies even in uncertainty regimes where the commonly used local (frequentist) analysis based on the Cram\'er-Rao bound is not well defined. In particular, it applies when no…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-03-17 Simon Morelli , Ayaka Usui , Elizabeth Agudelo , Nicolai Friis

Bayesian model updating based on Gaussian Process (GP) models has received attention in recent years, which incorporates kernel-based GPs to provide enhanced fidelity response predictions. Although most kernel functions provide high fitting…

Friction modeling has always been a challenging problem due to the complexity of real physical systems. Although a few state-of-the-art structured data-driven methods show their efficiency in nonlinear system modeling, deterministic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-28 Rui Dai , Giulio Evangelisti , Sandra Hirche

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

In scientific applications, multivariate observations often come in tandem with temporal or spatial covariates, with which the underlying signals vary smoothly. The standard approaches such as principal component analysis and factor…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-15 Mark Koudstaal , Dengdeng Yu , Dehan Kong , Fang Yao

The advent of data science has provided an increasing number of challenges with high data complexity. This paper addresses the challenge of space-time data where the spatial domain is not a planar surface, a sphere, or a linear network, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-09 Emilio Porcu , Philip A. White , Marc G. Genton

This article presents a neural network approach for estimating the covariance function of spatial Gaussian random fields defined in a portion of the Euclidean plane. Our proposal builds upon recent contributions, expanding from the purely…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Alejandro Villazón , Alfredo Alegría , Xavier Emery

Despite the widespread utilization of Gaussian process models for versatile nonparametric modeling, they exhibit limitations in effectively capturing abrupt changes in function smoothness and accommodating relationships with heteroscedastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-01 Taehee Lee , Jun S. Liu