Related papers: Forecasting, Causality, and Impulse Response with …

While unsupervised variational autoencoders (VAE) have become a powerful tool in neuroimage analysis, their application to supervised learning is under-explored. We aim to close this gap by proposing a unified probabilistic model for…

Identifying the topology underlying a set of time series is useful for tasks such as prediction, denoising, and data completion. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model-based topologies capture dependencies among time series and are often…

A widely applied approach to causal inference from a non-experimental time series $X$, often referred to as "(linear) Granger causal analysis", is to regress present on past and interpret the regression matrix $\hat{B}$ causally. However,…

Understanding the dynamics of functional brain connectivity patterns using noninvasive neuroimaging techniques is an important focus in human neuroscience. Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes and Granger causality analysis (GCA) have been…

In this paper we present VART, a tool for automatically revealing regression faults missed by regression test suites. Interestingly, VART is not limited to faults causing crashing or exceptions, but can reveal faults that cause the…

For general panel data, by introducing network structure, network vector autoregressive (NVAR) model captured the linear inter dependencies among multiple time series. In this paper, we propose network vector autoregressive model for dyadic…

Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…

The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that…

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…

Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…

Under a high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we propose a way of efficiently estimating both the stationary graph structure between the nodal time series and their temporal dynamics. The framework is then used to make…

We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models have numerous applications in fields such as econometrics, biology, climatology, among others. While prior research has mainly focused on linear VAR models, these approaches can be…

In quantum mechanics, observation actively shapes the system, paralleling the statistical notion of Missing Not At Random (MNAR). This study introduces a unified framework for \textbf{robust causal directionality inference} in quantum…

The paper introduces a flexible model for the analysis of multivariate nonlinear time series data. The proposed Functional Coefficients Network Autoregressive (FCNAR) model considers the response of each node in the network to depend in a…

Inference, prediction and control of complex dynamical systems from time series is important in many areas, including financial markets, power grid management, climate and weather modeling, or molecular dynamics. The analysis of such highly…

Visual autoregressive models typically adhere to a raster-order ``next-token prediction" paradigm, which overlooks the spatial and temporal locality inherent in visual content. Specifically, visual tokens exhibit significantly stronger…

Multivariate Bernoulli autoregressive (BAR) processes model time series of events in which the likelihood of current events is determined by the times and locations of past events. These processes can be used to model nonlinear dynamical…