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We introduce a scalable approach to Gaussian process inference that combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a non-conjugate GP method for multivariate data that scales linearly with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Oliver Hamelijnck , William J. Wilkinson , Niki A. Loppi , Arno Solin , Theodoros Damoulas

Clustering is a well-known and studied problem, one of its variants, called contiguity-constrained clustering, accepts as a second input a graph used to encode prior information about cluster structure by means of contiguity constraints…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-27 Etienne Côme

We introduce a class of Markov coalescent processes on the continuous $d$-dimensional torus, in the most general setting of simultaneous multiple mergers, called the Brownian spatial coalescent. It is axiomatically defined through a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Peter Koepernik

We show how to construct the implied copula process of response values from a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with prior on the leaf node variances. This copula process, defined on the covariate space, can be paired with any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Jan Martin Wenkel , Michael Stanley Smith , Nadja Klein

A decision tree is commonly restricted to use a single hyperplane to split the covariate space at each of its internal nodes. It often requires a large number of nodes to achieve high accuracy, hurting its interpretability. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Mohammadreza Armandpour , Mingyuan Zhou

Standard approaches for global optimization of non-convex functions, such as branch-and-bound, maintain partition trees to systematically prune the domain. The tree size grows exponentially in the number of dimensions. We propose new…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Yaoguang Zhai , Zhizhen Qin , Sicun Gao

In this work, we present a general method to establish properties of multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains representing stochastic reaction networks. This method consists of grouping states together (via a partition of the state…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Guillaume Ballif , Laurent Pfeiffer , Jakob Ruess

The P\'olya tree (PT) process is a general-purpose Bayesian nonparametric model that has found wide application in a range of inference problems. It has a simple analytic form and the posterior computation boils down to beta-binomial…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-09 Naoki Awaya , Li Ma

We introduce the Mondrian kernel, a fast random feature approximation to the Laplace kernel. It is suitable for both batch and online learning, and admits a fast kernel-width-selection procedure as the random features can be re-used…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-17 Matej Balog , Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Zoubin Ghahramani , Daniel M. Roy , Yee Whye Teh

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient global optimization algorithm for black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. Existing literature on model based optimization in conditional parameter spaces are usually built on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-08 Xingchen Ma , Matthew B. Blaschko

Spatial data is ubiquitous. Massive amounts of data are generated every day from a plethora of sources such as billions of GPS-enabled devices (e.g., cell phones, cars, and sensors), consumer-based applications (e.g., Uber and Strava), and…

Random sampling of graph partitions under constraints has become a popular tool for evaluating legislative redistricting plans. Analysts detect partisan gerrymandering by comparing a proposed redistricting plan with an ensemble of sampled…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-09 Cory McCartan , Kosuke Imai

We propose a novel class of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, appropriate for inference in probabilistic graphical models. This class of algorithms adopts a divide-and-conquer approach based upon an auxiliary tree-structured…

The travelling salesman problem (TSP) of space trajectory design is complicated by its complex structure design space. The graph based tree search and stochastic seeding combinatorial approaches are commonly employed to tackle the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-07 Liqiang Hou , Shufan Wu , Zhongcheng Mu , Meilin Liu

Sequential model-based optimization sequentially selects a candidate point by constructing a surrogate model with the history of evaluations, to solve a black-box optimization problem. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a popular choice as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-23 Jungtaek Kim , Seungjin Choi

We describe spatio-temporal random processes using linear mixed models. We show how many commonly used models can be viewed as special cases of this general framework and pay close attention to models with separable or product-sum…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-01 Michael Dumelle , Jay M. Ver Hoef , Claudio Fuentes , Alix Gitelman

High-dimensional design spaces underpin a wide range of physics-based modeling and computational design tasks in science and engineering. These problems are commonly formulated as constrained black-box searches over rugged objective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Suvo Banik , Troy D. Loeffler , Henry Chan , Sukriti Manna , Orcun Yildiz , Tom Peterka , Subramanian Sankaranarayanan

Spatial point pattern data are routinely encountered. A flexible regression model for the underlying intensity is essential to characterizing the spatial point pattern and understanding the impacts of potential risk factors on such pattern.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-15 Jieying Jiao , Guanyu Hu , Jun Yan

We study self-similarity in random binary rooted trees. In a well-understood case of Galton-Watson trees, a distribution on a space of trees is said to be self-similar if it is invariant with respect to the operation of pruning, which cuts…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Yevgeniy Kovchegov , Ilya Zaliapin

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient global optimization algorithm for black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. Existing literature on model based optimization in conditional parameter spaces are usually built on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-08 Xingchen Ma , Matthew B. Blaschko