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Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yukun Ding , Jinglan Liu , Jinjun Xiong , Yiyu Shi

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Deepta Rajan

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Nathan Fenner , Stefano Ermon

Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-24 Rhiannon Michelmore , Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Luca Cardelli , Yarin Gal , Marta Kwiatkowska

Machine learning models have achieved human-level performance on various tasks. This success comes at a high cost of computation and storage overhead, which makes machine learning algorithms difficult to deploy on edge devices. Typically,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-12 Giuseppina Carannante , Dimah Dera , Ghulam Rasool , Nidhal C. Bouaynaya

When fine-tuning Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to new data, DNNs are prone to overwriting network parameters required for task-specific functionality on previously learned tasks, resulting in a loss of performance on those tasks. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Christopher Angelini , Nidhal Bouaynaya

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-18 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Illia Oleksiienko , Dat Thanh Tran , Alexandros Iosifidis

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-17 Sujay Thakur , Cooper Lorsung , Yaniv Yacoby , Finale Doshi-Velez , Weiwei Pan

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Scott Koermer , Natalie Klein

Bayesian neural networks utilize probabilistic layers that capture uncertainty over weights and activations, and are trained using Bayesian inference. Since these probabilistic layers are designed to be drop-in replacement of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-28 Daniel T. Chang

We take a Bayesian perspective to illustrate a connection between training speed and the marginal likelihood in linear models. This provides two major insights: first, that a measure of a model's training speed can be used to estimate its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Clare Lyle , Lisa Schut , Binxin Ru , Yarin Gal , Mark van der Wilk

Modern deep learning tools are remarkably effective in addressing intricate problems. However, their operation as black-box models introduces increased uncertainty in predictions. Additionally, they contend with various challenges,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Sourav Ganguly , Saprativa Bhattacharjee

Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-02 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Irene Kim , Rushil Anirudh , Peer-Timo Bremer

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful tools for various computer vision tasks, yet they often struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification - a critical requirement for real-world applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Gianni Franchi , Olivier Laurent , Maxence Leguéry , Andrei Bursuc , Andrea Pilzer , Angela Yao

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainty by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have focused…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-25 Cooper Lorsung

A comprehensive artificial intelligence system needs to not only perceive the environment with different `senses' (e.g., seeing and hearing) but also infer the world's conditional (or even causal) relations and corresponding uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-07 Hao Wang , Dit-Yan Yeung

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-15 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter