Related papers: Variety, Complexity and Economic Development
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in…
We develop a theoretical framework to investigate the link between rising scale economies and stagnating productivity. Our model features heterogeneous firms, imperfect competition, and firm selection. We demonstrate that scale economies…
A dynamic model of the product lifecycle of (nearly) homogeneous durables in polypoly markets is established. It describes the concurrent evolution of the unit sales and price of durable goods. The theory is based on the idea that the sales…
From collective hunting to environmental problems, social dilemmas are pervasive in human societies. Prior research has documented highly heterogeneous behavioral patterns in such settings. However, how this heterogeneity emerges and how it…
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium…
As the current thermo-industrial civilization expands, its technological and societal complexities increase. We suggest that physical power, economic activity and societal complexity are linked. A simple, intuitive model based on Systems…
Combinatorial evolution and forecasting of system requirements is examined. The morphological model is used for a hierarchical requirements system (i.e., system parts, design alternatives for the system parts, ordinal estimates for the…
This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…
Diversified economies are critical for cities to sustain their growth and development, but they are also costly because diversification often requires expanding a city's capability base. We analyze how cities manage this trade-off by…
Studying how we explore the world in search of novelties is key to understand the mechanisms that can lead to new discoveries. Previous studies analyzed novelties in various exploration processes, defining them as the first appearance of an…
To implement the previously formulated principles of sustainable economic development, all non-negative solutions of the linear system of equations and inequalities, which are satisfied by the vector of real consumption, are completely…
The modeling of technology succession and new technology adoption includes a wide array of techniques from complexity theory. In our previous work, we applied the results of the Windrum-Birchenhall model to technology policy and technology…
Optimization and expansion are two modes of staged evolution of complex systems where macroscopic observables change at a decreasing, respectively increasing, rate. A prime example of evolutionary expansion, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)…
We conducted an investigation of the effect that extreme variability of the individual's environment has in the individual's adaptability and, in general, in the co-evolution of a population. First we assume that the individuals are a kind…
Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear…
Systems with simultaneous cooperation and competition among the elements are ubiquitous. In spite of their practical importance, knowledge on the evolution mechanism of this class of complex system is still very limit. In this work, by…
We study an interacting agent model of a game-theoretical economy. The agents play a minority-subsequently-majority game and they learn, using backpropagation networks, to obtain higher payoffs. We study the relevance of heterogeneity to…
We study several models of growth driven by innovation and imitation by a continuum of firms, focusing on the interaction between the two. We first investigate a model on a technology ladder where innovation and imitation combine to…
We investigate the selective forces that promote the emergence of modularity in nature. We demonstrate the spontaneous emergence of modularity in a population of individuals that evolve in a changing environment. We show that the level of…
The key idea of this model is that firms are the result of an evolutionary process. Based on demand and supply considerations the evolutionary model presented here derives explicitly Gibrat's law of proportionate effects as the result of…