Related papers: Rare events for Cantor target sets
Evaluating rare-event forecasts is challenging because standard metrics collapse as event prevalence declines. Measures such as F1-score, AUPRC, MCC, and accuracy induce degenerate thresholds -- converging to zero or one -- and their values…
Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…
Compact binaries that emit gravitational waves in the sensitivity band of ground-based detectors can have non-negligible eccentricities just prior to merger, depending on the formation scenario. We develop a purely analytic,…
We give a characterization of the invariant measures for the exclusion process on the integers with certain reversible transition kernels. Some examples include all nearest-neighbor kernels with asymptotic mean zero. One tool used is a…
We explore the possibility of discovering extreme voting patterns in the U.S. Congressional voting records by drawing ideas from the mixture of contaminated normal distributions. A mixture of latent trait models via contaminated normal…
Imagine that measurements are made at times $t_0$ and $t_1$ of the trajectory of a physical system whose governing laws are given approximately by a class ${\cal A}$ of so-called {\em prior vector fields}. Because the physical laws are not…
Split-gate constrictions can be used to produce controllable scattering in a fractional quantum Hall state and constitute a very versatile model system for the investigation of non-Fermi physics in edge states. Controllable inter-edge…
We investigate the prospects of observing residual eccentricity in a population of compact binaries by calculating the power in the eccentric harmonics, following the methodology in arXiv:2411.04187. Although most observed compact binary…
A complete catalogue of galaxy cluster models can be used to constrain cosmological parameters like $\sigma_8$, the amplitude of the initial density fluctuation spectrum. We focus here on two strong lensing statistics for clusters of…
We apply the Principle of Maximum Entropy to the study of a general class of deterministic fractal sets. The scaling laws peculiar to these objects are accounted for by means of a constraint concerning the average content of information in…
We study the central limit theorem (CLT) for linear eigenvalue statistics of several types of matrix models, whose entries are having exploding moments, i.e., moments of the entries are increasing with the size of the matrix. In particular,…
Using tidal disruption of globular clusters by the galactic center, we put limits on the total mass ever enclosed into orbits of observed globular clusters. Under the assumption that the rate of mass loss from the Galaxy is steady, we then…
Quantum systems may contain underlying correlations which are inaccessible to computationally bounded observers. We capture this distinction through a framework that analyses bipartite states only using efficiently implementable quantum…
The capture and gradual inspiral of stellar mass objects by a massive black hole at the centre of a galaxy has been proposed as one of the most promising source of gravitational radiation to be detected by LISA. Unfortunately rate estimates…
Solid state detectors and cryogenic detectors are widely employed in rare event searches, such as direct Dark Matter detection or Coherent Neutrino Nucleus Scattering experiments. The excellent sensitivity and, consequently, their low…
The events detected by the LIGO Virgo KAGRA collaboration over a period of 10 years have yielded a treasure trove of signals from compact binary coalescences. None of these events have shown a confident signature of eccentricity. With…
Triple stars and compact objects are ubiquitously observed in nature. Their long-term evolution is complex; in particular, the von-Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai (ZLK) mechanism can potentially lead to highly eccentric encounters of the inner binary.…
We propose a new design strategy for extremum seeking control for a multi-dimensional single-integrator system in the presence of local extrema. The proposed method employs suitably designed sinusoidal dither signals, which force the…
We consider a class of maps from integral Hankel operators to Hankel matrices, which we call restriction maps. In the simplest case, such a map is simply a restriction of the integral kernel onto integers. More generally, it is given by an…
Article describes the results of the development and using of Rare-Event Monte-Carlo Simulation Algorithms for Dynamic Fault Trees Estimation. For Fault Trees estimation usually analytical methods are used (Minimal Cut sets, Markov Chains,…