Related papers: Deciding with Judgment
One purpose -- quite a few thinkers would say the main purpose -- of seeking knowledge about the world is to enhance our ability to make good decisions. An item of knowledge that can make no conceivable difference with regard to anything we…
Experts' beliefs embody a present state of knowledge. It is desirable to take this knowledge into account when doing analyses or making decisions. Yet ranking experts based on the merit of their beliefs is a difficult task. In this paper we…
We consider an odd-sized "jury", which votes sequentially between two states of Nature (say A and B, or Innocent and Guilty) with the majority opinion determining the verdict. Jurors have private information in the form of a signal in…
Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly…
Most people are risk-averse (risk-seeking) when they expect to gain (lose). Based on a generalization of ``expected utility theory'' which takes this into account, we introduce an automaton mimicking the dynamics of economic operations.…
We derive confidence intervals and confidence sequences for causal effects in situations where the back-door or front-door criteria are applicable. Our tightest confidence intervals hold in the standard setting where the training data…
Decision under ambiguity (uncertainty with unknown probabilities) has been attracting attention in behavioral and neuroeconomics. However, recent neuroimaging studies have mainly focused on gain domains while little attention has been paid…
Changes in market conditions present challenges for investors as they cause performance to deviate from the ranges predicted by long-term averages of means and covariances. The aim of conditional asset allocation strategies is to overcome…
A decision procedure implemented over a computational trust mechanism aims to allow for decisions to be made regarding whether some entity or information should be trusted. As recognised in the literature, trust is contextual, and we…
Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and…
Predictions in the form of sets of probability distributions, so-called credal sets, provide a suitable means to represent a learner's epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a theoretically grounded approach to credal prediction…
The well-known Condorcet's Jury theorem posits that the majority rule selects the best alternative among two available options with probability one, as the population size increases to infinity. We study this result under an asymmetric…
Decision making in modern stochastic systems, including e-commerce platforms, financial markets and healthcare systems, has evolved into a multifaceted process that combines information acquisition and adaptive information sources. This…
Scenario decision making offers a flexible way of making decision in an uncertain environment while obtaining probabilistic guarantees on the risk of failure of the decision. The idea of this approach is to draw samples of the uncertainty…
Choice consistency with utility maximization, as a key assumption in economics, has been extensively used to evaluate decision quality of individuals and to predict real-world outcomes across different contexts. Here we investigate the…
We consider the problem of estimating the mean $f$ of a Gaussian vector $Y$ with independent components of common unknown variance $\sigma^{2}$. Our estimation procedure is based on estimator selection. More precisely, we start with an…
In this work, we consider a binary hypothesis testing problem involving a group of human decision-makers. Due to the nature of human behavior, each human decision-maker observes the phenomenon of interest sequentially up to a random length…
We consider the problem of decision-making with side information and unbounded loss functions. Inspired by probably approximately correct learning model, we use a slightly different model that incorporates the notion of side information in…
Roy's `Safety First' criterion for selecting one risky asset from many is adapted to the case of non-normal returns, via Cornish Fisher expansion. The resulting investment objective is consistent with first order stochastic dominance, and…
Techniques for decision making with knowledge of linear constraints on condition probabilities are examined. These constraints arise naturally in many situations: upper and lower condition probabilities are known; an ordering among the…