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Variable selection for Gaussian process models is often done using automatic relevance determination, which uses the inverse length-scale parameter of each input variable as a proxy for variable relevance. This implicitly determined…
To deploy and operate deep neural models in production, the quality of their predictions, which might be contaminated benignly or manipulated maliciously by input distributional deviations, must be monitored and assessed. Specifically, we…
We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…
Differential Granger causality, that is understanding how Granger causal relations differ between two related time series, is of interest in many scientific applications. Modeling each time series by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we…
We consider an irreducible continuous time Markov chain on a finite state space and with time periodic jump rates and prove the joint large deviation principle for the empirical measure and flow and the joint large deviation principle for…
We present two examples of a large deviations principle where the rate function is not strictly convex. This is motivated by a model used in mathematical finance (the Heston model), and adds a new item to the zoology of non strictly convex…
We address the reachability problem for continuous-time stochastic dynamic systems. Our objective is to present a unified framework that characterizes the reachable set of a dynamic system in the presence of both stochastic disturbances and…
To sample from a given target distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling relies on constructing an ergodic Markov chain with the target distribution as its invariant measure. For any MCMC method, an important question is how to…
Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are commonly used to represent causal relationships among random variables in graphical models. Applications of these models arise in the study of physical, as well as biological systems, where directed edges…
Differential equations are a ubiquitous tool to study dynamics, ranging from physical systems to complex systems, where a large number of agents interact through a graph with non-trivial topological features. Data-driven approximations of…
Markov networks are frequently used in sciences to represent conditional independence relationships underlying observed variables arising from a complex system. It is often of interest to understand how an underlying network differs between…
We present large deviations estimates in the supremum norm for a system of independent random walks superposed with a birth-and-death dynamics evolving on the discrete torus with $N$ sites. The scaling limit considered is the so-called…
In this paper, the large deviations on trajectory level for ergodic Markov processes are studied. These processes take values in the non-negative quadrant of the two dimension lattice and are concentrated on step-wise functions. The rates…
In this paper we introduce and study renewal-reward processes in random environments where each renewal involves a reward taking values in a Banach space. We derive quenched large deviation principles and identify the associated rate…
For the 2D matrix Langevin dynamics that corresponds to the continuous-time limit of the product of some $2 \times 2$ random matrices, the finite-time Lyapunov exponent can be written as an additive functional of the associated Riccati…
We study a decentralized variant of stochastic approximation, a data-driven approach for finding the root of an operator under noisy measurements. A network of agents, each with its own operator and data observations, cooperatively find the…
A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank's processes, the…
We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…
Samples of dynamic or time-varying networks and other random object data such as time-varying probability distributions are increasingly encountered in modern data analysis. Common methods for time-varying data such as functional data…