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We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

We investigate large deviations properties for centered stationary AR(1) and MA(1) processes with independent Gaussian innovations, by giving the explicit bivariate rate functions for the sequence of random vectors $(\boldsymbol{S}_n)_{n…

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

Recent work has shown the effectiveness of tensor network methods for computing large deviation functions in constrained stochastic models in the infinite time limit. Here we show that these methods can also be used to study the statistics…

We establish sharp large deviation principles for cumulative rewards associated with a discrete-time renewal model, supposing that each renewal involves a broad-sense reward taking values in a real separable Banach space. The framework we…

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…

We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is…

We derive an annealed large deviation principle for the normalised local times of a continuous-time random walk among random conductances in a finite domain in $\Z^d$ in the spirit of Donsker-Varadhan \cite{DV75}. We work in the interesting…

We establish a sharp large deviation principle for renewal-reward processes, supposing that each renewal involves a broad-sense reward taking values in a real separable Banach space. In fact, we demonstrate a weak large deviation principle…

In stochastic systems, numerically sampling the relevant trajectories for the estimation of the large deviation statistics of time-extensive observables requires overcoming their exponential (in space and time) scarcity. The optimal way to…

For statistics of rare events in systems obeying a large-deviation principle, the rate function is a key quantity. When numerically estimating the rate function one is always restricted to finite system sizes. Thus, if the interest is in…

The large deviations analysis of solutions to stochastic differential equations and related processes is often based on approximation. The construction and justification of the approximations can be onerous, especially in the case where the…

We study a variance reduction strategy based on control variables for simulating the averaged macroscopic behavior of a stochastic slow-fast system. We assume that this averaged behavior can be written in terms of a few slow degrees of…

We consider the dynamic linear regression problem, where the predictor vector may vary with time. This problem can be modeled as a linear dynamical system, with non-constant observation operator, where the parameters that need to be learned…

In this paper we establish a large deviations type estimate for strongly mixing Markov chains with respect to the Lp norm. As applications we derive such estimates for the iterates of a locally constant random cocycle with mixed rank, as…

Let $\{{\bf \mathcal{Z}}_n:n\geq 1\}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random probability measures. Independently, for each $n\geq 1$, let $(X_{n1},\ldots, X_{nn})$ be a random vector of positive random variables that add up to one. This paper…

Models with a large number of latent variables are often used to fully utilize the information in big or complex data. However, they can be difficult to estimate using standard approaches, and variational inference methods are a popular…

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Linear dynamical relations that may exist in continuous-time, or at some natural sampling rate, are not directly discernable at reduced observational sampling rates. Indeed, at reduced rates, matricial spectral densities of vectorial time…

We describe a variational approximation method for efficient inference in large-scale probabilistic models. Variational methods are deterministic procedures that provide approximations to marginal and conditional probabilities of interest.…