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Causally identifying the effect of digital advertising is challenging, because experimentation is expensive, and observational data lacks random variation. This paper identifies a pervasive source of naturally occurring, quasi-experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-18 George Gui , Harikesh Nair , Fengshi Niu

Existing auto-bidding algorithms in digital advertising often treat the value of an ad opportunity as the revenue obtained when an ad is shown and/or clicked, and bid accordingly. This can lead to wasteful spending because the true value is…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Yuxiao Wen , Zihao Hu , Yanjun Han , Yuan Yao , Zhengyuan Zhou

Real-time bidding (RTB) systems, which utilize auctions to allocate user impressions to competing advertisers, continue to enjoy success in digital advertising. Assessing the effectiveness of such advertising remains a challenge in research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Caio Waisman , Harikesh S. Nair , Carlos Carrion

The causal effect of showing an ad to a potential customer versus not, commonly referred to as "incrementality", is the fundamental question of advertising effectiveness. In digital advertising three major puzzle pieces are central to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-30 Randall Lewis , Jeffrey Wong

In classical causal inference, inferring cause-effect relations from data relies on the assumption that units are independent and identically distributed. This assumption is violated in settings where units are related through a network of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Razieh Nabi , Joel Pfeiffer , Murat Ali Bayir , Denis Charles , Emre Kıcıman

Online advertising platforms use automated auctions to connect advertisers with potential customers, requiring effective bidding strategies to maximize profits. Accurate ad impact estimation requires considering three key factors: delayed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Yuwei Cheng , Zifeng Zhao , Haifeng Xu

We consider a causal inference problem frequently encountered in online advertising systems, where a publisher (e.g., Instagram, TikTok) interacts repeatedly with human users and advertisers by sporadically displaying to each user an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-06 Jia Yuan Yu

Online advertisements have become one of today's most widely used tools for enhancing businesses partly because of their compatibility with A/B testing. A/B testing allows sellers to find effective advertisement strategies such as ad…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Akira Matsui , Daisuke Moriwaki

Online media provides opportunities for marketers through which they can deliver effective brand messages to a wide range of audiences. Advertising technology platforms enable advertisers to reach their target audience by delivering ad…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-01-12 Shahriar Shariat , Burkay Orten , Ali Dasdan

We introduce a new budgeted framework for online influence maximization, considering the total cost of an advertising campaign instead of the common cardinality constraint on a chosen influencer set. Our approach better models the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Pierre Perrault , Jennifer Healey , Zheng Wen , Michal Valko

Purpose: We model group advertising decisions, which are the collective decisions of every single advertiser within the set of advertisers who are competing in the same auction or vertical industry, and examine resulting market outcomes,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-03-07 Yanwu Yang , Xin Li , Bernard J. Jansen , Daniel Zeng

With the emergence of new online channels and information technology, digital advertising tends to substitute more and more to traditional advertising by offering the opportunity to companies to target the consumers/users that are really…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-17 Médéric Motte , Huyên Pham

We study regret minimization in repeated first-price auctions (FPAs), where a bidder observes only the realized outcome after each auction -- win or loss. This setup reflects practical scenarios in online display advertising where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Yuxiao Wen , Yanjun Han , Zhengyuan Zhou

The effectiveness of advertising in e-commerce largely depends on the ability of merchants to bid on and win impressions for their targeted users. The bidding procedure is highly complex due to various factors such as market competition,…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-12-29 Artem Betlei , Mariia Vladimirova , Mehdi Sebbar , Nicolas Urien , Thibaud Rahier , Benjamin Heymann

In online advertising markets, budget-constrained advertisers acquire ad placements through repeated bidding in auctions on various platforms. We present a strategy for bidding optimally in a set of auctions that may or may not be…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Fransisca Susan , Negin Golrezaei , Okke Schrijvers

Predicting click and conversion probabilities when bidding on ad exchanges is at the core of the programmatic advertising industry. Two separated lines of previous works respectively address i) the prediction of user conversion probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-24 Eustache Diemert , Julien Meynet , Pierre Galland , Damien Lefortier

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

Evaluating the causal effect of recommendations is an important objective because the causal effect on user interactions can directly leads to an increase in sales and user engagement. To select an optimal recommendation model, it is common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Masahiro Sato

Most search engines sell slots to place advertisements on the search results page through keyword auctions. Advertisers offer bids for how much they are willing to pay when someone enters a search query, sees the search results, and then…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2011-09-29 Greg Linden , Christopher Meek , Max Chickering

We study the budget allocation problem in online marketing campaigns that utilize previously collected offline data. We first discuss the long-term effect of optimizing marketing budget allocation decisions in the offline setting. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Tianchi Cai , Jiyan Jiang , Wenpeng Zhang , Shiji Zhou , Xierui Song , Li Yu , Lihong Gu , Xiaodong Zeng , Jinjie Gu , Guannan Zhang
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