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We propose automated augmented conjugate inference, a new inference method for non-conjugate Gaussian processes (GP) models. Our method automatically constructs an auxiliary variable augmentation that renders the GP model conditionally…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Théo Galy-Fajou , Florian Wenzel , Manfred Opper

The Gaussian process (GP) is a nonparametric prior distribution over functions indexed by time, space, or other high-dimensional index set. The GP is a flexible model yet its limitation is given by its very nature: it can only model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-15 Gonzalo Rios , Felipe Tobar

Recently there has been an increasing interest in methods that deal with multiple outputs. This has been motivated partly by frameworks like multitask learning, multisensor networks or structured output data. From a Gaussian processes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-11-30 Mauricio A. Álvarez , Neil D. Lawrence

This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-27 Casey B. Davis , Christopher M. Hans , Thomas J. Santner

A key challenge in the practical application of Gaussian processes (GPs) is selecting a proper covariance function. The moving average, or process convolutions, construction of GPs allows some additional flexibility, but still requires…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-19 Thomas M. McDonald , Magnus Ross , Michael T. Smith , Mauricio A. Álvarez

Multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGPs) have been introduced to deal with multiple tasks by exploiting the correlations between different outputs. Generally, MOGPs models assume a flat correlation structure between the outputs. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-01 Chunchao Ma , Arthur Leroy , Mauricio Alvarez

This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Chiwoo Park , David J. Borth , Nicholas S. Wilson , Chad N. Hunter

Gaussian processes (GPs) are frequently used in machine learning and statistics to construct powerful models. However, when employing GPs in practice, important considerations must be made, regarding the high computational burden,…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-08 Karla Monterrubio-Gómez , Sara Wade

We develop adaptive estimation and inference methods for high-dimensional Gaussian copula regression that achieve the same performance without the knowledge of the marginal transformations as that for high-dimensional linear regression.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-09 T. Tony Cai , Linjun Zhang

Interest in multioutput kernel methods is increasing, whether under the guise of multitask learning, multisensor networks or structured output data. From the Gaussian process perspective a multioutput Mercer kernel is a covariance function…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-12-18 Mauricio A. Álvarez , David Luengo , Michalis K. Titsias , Neil D. Lawrence

Analyzing multivariate time series data is important to predict future events and changes of complex systems in finance, manufacturing, and administrative decisions. The expressiveness power of Gaussian Process (GP) regression methods has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-23 Anh Tong , Jaesik Choi

Gaussian process (GP) regression with 1D inputs can often be performed in linear time via a stochastic differential equation formulation. However, for non-Gaussian likelihoods, this requires application of approximate inference methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-20 Paul E. Chang , William J. Wilkinson , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Arno Solin

Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric models for function approximation with principled predictive uncertainty estimates. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multilayer generalizations of GPs that can represent complex marginal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-20 Qiuxian Meng , Yongyou Zhang

Modelling longitudinal data is an important yet challenging task. These datasets can be high-dimensional, contain non-linear effects and time-varying covariates. Gaussian process (GP) prior-based variational autoencoders (VAEs) have emerged…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-18 Priscilla Ong , Manuel Haußmann , Otto Lönnroth , Harri Lähdesmäki

Projection predictive inference is a decision theoretic Bayesian approach that decouples model estimation from decision making. Given a reference model previously built including all variables present in the data, projection predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-15 Alejandro Catalina , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-17 Hossein Soleimani , James Hensman , Suchi Saria

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are widely used in statistics and machine learning. Bayesian inference in non-conjugate LGMs is difficult due to intractable integrals involving the Gaussian prior and non-conjugate likelihoods. Algorithms…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-06-06 Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Aleksandr Y. Aravkin , Michael P. Friedlander , Matthias Seeger

In biomedical studies it is common to collect data on multiple biomarkers during study follow-up for dynamic prediction of a time-to-event clinical outcome. The biomarkers are typically intermittently measured, missing at some event times,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-05 Ning Li , Yi Liu , Shanpeng Li , Robert M. Elashoff , Gang Li

Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…

Gaussian processes (GPs), or distributions over arbitrary functions in a continuous domain, can be generalized to the multi-output case: a linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is one approach. LMCs estimate and exploit correlations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-24 Vladimir Feinberg , Li-Fang Cheng , Kai Li , Barbara E Engelhardt