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Obtaining a non-parametric expression for an interventional distribution is one of the most fundamental tasks in causal inference. Such an expression can be obtained for an identifiable causal effect by an algorithm or by manual application…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

We present a symbolic machinery that admits both probabilistic and causal information about a given domain and produces probabilistic statements about the effect of actions and the impact of observations. The calculus admits two types of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Judea Pearl

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do calculus is required has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-13 Finnian Lattimore , David Rohde

Predicting potential and counterfactual outcomes from observational data is central to individualized decision-making, particularly in clinical settings where treatment choices must be tailored to each patient rather than guided solely by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-16 Dongze Wu , David I. Inouye , Yao Xie

The do-calculus is a sound and complete tool for identifying causal effects in acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) induced by structural causal models (SCMs). However, in many real-world applications, especially in high-dimensional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Simon Ferreira , Charles K. Assaad

Given a causal graph, the do-calculus can express treatment effects as functionals of the observational joint distribution that can be estimated empirically. Sometimes the do-calculus identifies multiple valid formulae, prompting us to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Shantanu Gupta , Zachary C. Lipton , David Childers

Causal inference is best understood using potential outcomes. This use is particularly important in more complex settings, that is, observational studies or randomized experiments with complications such as noncompliance. The topic of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donald B. Rubin

This paper introduces Attribution Projection Calculus (AP-Calculus), a novel mathematical framework for determining causal relationships in structured Bayesian networks. We investigate a specific network architecture with source nodes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 M Ruhul Amin

The generalizability of empirical findings to new environments, settings or populations, often called "external validity," is essential in most scientific explorations. This paper treats a particular problem of generalizability, called…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-06 Judea Pearl , Elias Bareinboim

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

Estimating causal queries, such as changes in protein abundance in response to a perturbation, is a fundamental task in the analysis of biomolecular pathways. The estimation requires experimental measurements on the pathway components.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-26 Sara Mohammad-Taheri , Jeremy Zucker , Charles Tapley Hoyt , Karen Sachs , Vartika Tewari , Robert Ness , and Olga Vitek

When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Guilherme Duarte , Noam Finkelstein , Dean Knox , Jonathan Mummolo , Ilya Shpitser

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Maggie Makar , Fredrik D. Johansson , John Guttag , David Sontag

A notion of probabilistic lambda-calculus usually comes with a prescribed reduction strategy, typically call-by-name or call-by-value, as the calculus is non-confluent and these strategies yield different results. This is a break with one…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2020-02-21 Ugo Dal Lago , Giulio Guerrieri , Willem Heijltjes

Probabilities of Causation (PoC) play a fundamental role in decision-making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions, in the absence of which only bounds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Numair Sani , Atalanti A. Mastakouri

Mechanisms for the automation of uncertainty are required for expert systems. Sometimes these mechanisms need to obey the properties of probabilistic reasoning. A purely numeric mechanism, like those proposed so far, cannot provide a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Alan Bundy

This tutorial provides a concise introduction to modern causal modeling by integrating potential outcomes and graphical methods. We motivate causal questions such as counterfactual reasoning under interventions and define binary treatments…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Gauranga Kumar Baishya

Among Judea Pearl's many contributions to Causality and Statistics, the graphical d-separation} criterion, the do-calculus and the mediation formula stand out. In this chapter we show that d-separation} provides direct insight into an…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Ilya Shpitser , Thomas S. Richardson , James M. Robins

Mediation analysis seeks to infer how much of the effect of an exposure on an outcome can be attributed to specific pathways via intermediate variables or mediators. This requires identification of so-called path-specific effects. These…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-06 Johan Steen , Stijn Vansteelandt