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This paper shows a novel machine learning model for realized volatility (RV) prediction using a normalizing flow, an invertible neural network. Since RV is known to be skewed and have a fat tail, previous methods transform RV into values…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Xin Du , Kai Moriyama , Kumiko Tanaka-Ishii

In industrial applications it is quite common to use stochastic volatility models driven by semi-martingale Markov volatility processes. However, in order to fit exactly market volatilities, these models are usually extended by adding a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-22 Enrico Dall'Acqua , Riccardo Longoni , Andrea Pallavicini

We consider the short time behaviour of stochastic systems affected by a stochastic volatility evolving at a faster time scale. We study the asymptotics of a logarithmic functional of the process by methods of the theory of homogenisation…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-05-14 Martino Bardi , Annalisa Cesaroni , Daria Ghilli

This study provides a consistent and efficient pricing method for both Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) options and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (VIX) options under a multiscale stochastic volatility model. To…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-24 Jaegi Jeon , Geonwoo Kim , Jeonggyu Huh

Albeit of crucial interest for both financial practitioners and researchers, market-implied volatility data of European swaptions often exhibit large portions of missing quotes due to illiquidity of the various underlying swaption…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-25 Ivo Richert , Robert Buch

In this paper, we price European Call three different option pricing models, where the volatility is dynamically changing i.e. non constant. In stochastic volatility (SV) models for option pricing a closed form approximation technique is…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-19 Natasha Latif , Shafqat Ali Shad , Muhammad Usman , Chandan Kumar , Bahman B Motii , MD Mahfuzer Rahman , Khuram Shafi , Zahra Idrees

We prove a large deviations principle for the class of multidimensional affine stochastic volatility models considered in (Gourieroux, C. and Sufana, R., J. Bus. Econ. Stat., 28(3), 2010), where the volatility matrix is modelled by a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2018-06-20 Aurélien Alfonsi , David Krief , Peter Tankov

Building upon factor decomposition to overcome the curse of dimensionality inherent in multivariate volatility processes, we develop a factor model-based multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) framework. We propose a two-stage estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-24 Benjamin Poignard , Manabu Asai

In February 2018, the VIX index has seen its largest ever increase and has lead to significant losses for some major volatility related products. Despite many efforts, the precise underlying reasons are yet to be discovered. We study the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-12-20 Kia Farokhnia , Joerg Osterrieder

We present a novel Monte Carlo based LSV calibration algorithm that applies to all stochastic volatility models, including the non-Markovian rough volatility family. Our framework overcomes the limitations of the particle method proposed by…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-01 Aitor Muguruza

Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-22 Fearghal Kearney , Han Lin Shang , Lisa Sheenan

Implied volatility is at the very core of modern finance, notwithstanding standard option pricing models continue to derive option prices starting from the joint dynamics of the underlying asset price and the spot volatility. These models…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-14 Claude Martini , Iacopo Raffaelli

We propose a novel time discretization for the log-normal SABR model which is a popular stochastic volatility model that is widely used in financial practice. Our time discretization is a variant of the Euler-Maruyama scheme. We study its…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-18 Dan Pirjol , Lingjiong Zhu

We develop a variant of rough path theory tailor-made for analyzing a class of financial asset price models known as rough volatility models. As an application, we prove a pathwise large deviation principle (LDP) for a certain class of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-27 Masaaki Fukasawa , Ryoji Takano

We study the asymptotic behavior of distribution densities arising in stock price models with stochastic volatility. The main objects of our interest in the present paper are the density of time averages of the squared volatility process…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-06-03 A. Gulisashvili , E. M. Stein

We present a fast and robust calibration method for stochastic volatility models that admit Fourier-analytic transform-based pricing via characteristic functions. The design is structure-preserving: we keep the original pricing transform…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-23 Keyuan Wu , Tenghan Zhong , Yuxuan Ouyang

We compute precise asymptotic expressions for the learning curves of least squares random feature (RF) models with either a separable strongly convex regularization or the $\ell_1$ regularization. We propose a novel multi-level application…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-02 David Bosch , Ashkan Panahi , Ayca Özcelikkale , Devdatt Dubhash

In this chapter, we consider volatility swap, variance swap and VIX future pricing under different stochastic volatility models and jump diffusion models which are commonly used in financial market. We use convexity correction approximation…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-08 Anatoliy Swishchuk , Zijia Wang

In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-31 Yu Zheng , Yongxin Yang , Bowei Chen

In this paper, we obtain sharp asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the Mellin convolution of functions, and use these formulas to characterize the asymptotic behavior of marginal distribution densities of stock price processes in…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-03-24 Archil Gulisashvili , Josep Vives