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We investigate the parameter estimation and prediction of two forms of the stochastic SIR model driven by small L\'{e}vy noise with time-dependent periodic transmission. We present consistency and rate of convergence results for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-24 Terry Easlick , Wei Sun

We propose a parsimonious stochastic model for characterising the distributional and temporal properties of rainfall. The model is based on an integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by the Hougaard L\'evy process. We derive properties…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-27 Ragnhild C. Noven , Almut E. D. Veraart , Axel Gandy

In this note a new high performance least squares parameter estimator is proposed. The main features of the estimator are: (i) global exponential convergence is guaranteed for all identifiable linear regression equations; (ii) it…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Romeo Ortega , Jose Guadalupe Romero , Stanislav Aranovskiy

We study parameter estimation for a linear parabolic second-order stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) in two space dimensions with a small dispersion parameter using high frequency data with respect to time and space. We set two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Yozo Tonaki , Yusuke Kaino , Masayuki Uchida

We consider a linear stochastic differential equation with stochastic drift. We study the problem of approximating the solution of such equation through an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process, by using direct methods of calculus of variations.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Giacomo Ascione , Giuseppe D'Onofrio , Lubomir Kostal , Enrica Pirozzi

Statistical inference for a linear stochastic hyperbolic equation with two unknown parameters is studied. Based on observation of coordinates of the solution or their linear combination, minimum contrast estimators are introduced. Strong…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Josef Janák

In this paper, we are concerned with a non-asymptotic analysis of sampling algorithms used in nonconvex optimization. In particular, we obtain non-asymptotic estimates in Wasserstein-1 and Wasserstein-2 distances for a popular class of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-17 Ying Zhang , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Theodoros Damoulas , Sotirios Sabanis

In this paper a drift-randomized Milstein method is introduced for the numerical solution of non-autonomous stochastic differential equations with non-differentiable drift coefficient functions. Compared to standard Milstein-type methods we…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-12 Raphael Kruse , Yue Wu

We present an asymptotic expansion formula of an estimator for the drift coefficient of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. As the machinery, we apply the general expansion scheme for Wiener functionals recently developed by the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-05 Ciprian A. Tudor , Nakahiro Yoshida

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Shubhada Agrawal , Prashanth L. A. , Siva Theja Maguluri

We study the problem of parameter estimation for the homogenization limit of multiscale systems involving fractional dynamics. In the case of stochastic multiscale systems driven by Brownian motion, it has been shown that in order for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Pablo Ramses Alonso-Martin , Horatio Boedihardjo , Anastasia Papavasiliou

In this paper we present new theoretical results on optimal estimation of certain random quantities based on high frequency observations of a L\'evy process. More specifically, we investigate the asymptotic theory for the conditional mean…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-09 Jevgenijs Ivanovs , Mark Podolskij

The goal of this paper is to construct ergodic estimators for the parameters in the double exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, observed at discrete time instants with time step size h. The existence and uniqueness, the strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-19 Yaozhong Hu , Neha Sharma

We study the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameters of a stochastic differential equation, with both drift and diffusion coefficients constant on the positive and negative axis, yet discontinuous at zero. This threshold…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-22 Antoine Lejay , Paolo Pigato

We study the estimation of a stable Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, which is a special subcritical continuous-state branching process with immigration. The process is characterized in terms of some stochastic equations. The exponential ergodicity…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-16 Zenghu Li , Chunhua Ma

This paper studies Langevin equation with random damping due to multiplicative noise and its solution. Two types of multiplicative noise, namely the dichotomous noise and fractional Gaussian noise are considered. Their solutions are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-11-30 Chai Hok Eab , S. C. Lim

A systematic procedure for optimising the friction coefficient in underdamped Langevin dynamics as a sampling tool is given by taking the gradient of the associated asymptotic variance with respect to friction. We give an expression for…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-01 Martin Chak , Nikolas Kantas , Tony Lelièvre , Grigorios A. Pavliotis

Identifying the full entropy production of active particles is a challenging task. We introduce a microscopic, thermodynamically consistent model, which leads to active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck statistics in the continuum limit. Our minimal model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-12-15 Jonas H. Fritz , Udo Seifert

This paper deals with the Local Asymptotical normality for the joint drift parameter and Hurst parameter $H>3/4$ in the mixed fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Different from the only estimation of the drift parameter when $H$ is…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Chunhao Cai , Cong Zhang

This paper is concerned with the least squares estimator for a basic class of nonlinear autoregressive models, whose outputs are not necessarily to be ergodic. Several asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator have been…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Zhaobo Liu , Chanying Li
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