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We propose an approximate hierarchical Bayes approach that uses the Natural Exponential Family with Quadratic Variance Function in combining information from multiple sources to improve traditional survey estimates of finite population…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Soumojit Das , Partha Lahiri

Score-driven models update time-varying parameters using conditional likelihood scores. This paper develops a Bayesian interpretation of such updates through Tweedie's formula, which connects posterior mean corrections with marginal scores.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-27 Peter Reinhard Hansen , Chen Tong

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

The assessment of diversity and similarity is relevant in monitoring the status of ecosystems. The respective indicators are based on the taxonomic composition of biological communities of interest, currently estimated through the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-12 Fabio Divino , Johanna Ärje , Antti Penttinen , Kristian Meissner , Salme Kärkkäinen

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-18 Marcelo Hartmann , Georgi Agiashvili , Paul Bürkner , Arto Klami

The Rician distribution, a well-known statistical distribution frequently encountered in fields like magnetic resonance imaging and wireless communications, is particularly useful for describing many real phenomena such as signal process…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Jesus Enrique Achire Quispe , Eduardo Ramos , Pedro Luiz Ramos

We revisit empirical Bayes in the absence of a tractable likelihood function, as is typical in scientific domains relying on computer simulations. We investigate how the empirical Bayesian can make use of neural density estimators first to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-02 Maxime Vandegar , Michael Kagan , Antoine Wehenkel , Gilles Louppe

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Yutao Liu , Andrew Gelman , Qixuan Chen

Applying the standard weighted mean formula, [sum_i {n_i sigma^{-2}_i}] / [sum_i {sigma^{-2}_i}], to determine the weighted mean of data, n_i, drawn from a Poisson distribution, will, on average, underestimate the true mean by ~1 for all…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-10-31 Kenneth J. Mighell

Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Petri Kontkanen , Petri Myllymaki , Tomi Silander , Henry Tirri

We propose a Bayesian elastic net that uses empirical likelihood and develop an efficient tuning of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for posterior sampling. The proposed model relaxes the assumptions on the identity of the error distribution,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Chul Moon , Adel Bedoui

This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients…

Econometrics · Economics 2017-10-02 Laura Liu , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

We study methods for simultaneous analysis of many noisy and biased estimates, each paired with an even noisier estimate of its own bias. The analyst's goal is to construct short calibrated intervals for each parameter. The standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Wanyi Ling , Sida Li , Junming Guan , Nikolaos Ignatiadis

We propose the use of a simple intuitive principle for measuring algorithmic classification bias: the significance of the differences in a classifier's error rates across the various demographics is inversely commensurate with the sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-08 Ioannis Ivrissimtzis , Shauna Concannon , Matthew Houliston , Graham Roberts

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

This paper presents a new method to estimate systematic errors in the maximum-likelihood regression of count data. The method is applicable in particular to X-ray spectra in situations where the Poisson log-likelihood, or the Cash…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-05-03 M. Bonamente

In this paper, we address the normal mean inference problem, which involves testing multiple means of normal random variables with heteroscedastic variances. Most existing empirical Bayes methods for this setting are developed under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Kwangok Seo , Johan Lim , Kaiwen Wang , Dohwan Park , Shota Katayama , Xinlei Wang

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Alexander Terenin , David Draper

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Simon H. Tindemans , Goran Strbac