Related papers: Gaussian Process Regression for Pricing Variable A…
In this work we consider Bayesian inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. We present a method to compute an approximate of the posterior with a limited number of model simulations. The method features an inverse Gaussian…
We introduce an ensemble learning method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for predicting conditional expected stock returns given stock-level and macro-economic information. Our ensemble learning approach significantly reduces the…
We construct a binomial model for a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider to a variable annuity (VA) under optimal policyholder behaviour. The binomial model results in explicitly formulated perfect hedging strategies funded…
The performance of Gaussian Process (GP) regression is often hampered by the curse of dimensionality, which inflates computational cost and reduces predictive power in high-dimensional problems. Variable selection is thus crucial for…
Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a nonparametric supervised learning method, widely valued for its ability to quantify uncertainty. Despite its advantages and broad applications, classical GPR implementations face significant…
Stochastic volatility models based on Gaussian processes, like fractional Brownian motion, are able to reproduce important stylized facts of financial markets such as rich autocorrelation structures, persistence and roughness of sample…
Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a fundamental model used in machine learning. Owing to its accurate prediction with uncertainty and versatility in handling various data structures via kernels, GPR has been successfully used in various…
In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…
Gaussian process model for vector-valued function has been shown to be useful for multi-output prediction. The existing method for this model is to re-formulate the matrix-variate Gaussian distribution as a multivariate normal distribution.…
In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black-Scholes dynamics. The proposed…
The estimation of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) plays a pivotal role in intelligent manufacturing systems and Industry 4.0 technologies. While recent advancements have improved RUL prediction, many models still face interpretability and…
Evaluating moving average options is a tough computational challenge for the energy and commodity market as the payoff of the option depends on the prices of a certain underlying observed on a moving window so, when a long window is…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that…
This paper presents a novel variational inference framework for deriving a family of Bayesian sparse Gaussian process regression (SGPR) models whose approximations are variationally optimal with respect to the full-rank GPR model enriched…
The state-of-the-art proposes Life Care Annuities, that have been recently designed as variable annuity contracts with Long-Term Care payouts and Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefits. In this paper, we propose more general features for…
The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…
This paper investigates optimal withdrawal strategies and behavior of policyholders in a variable annuity (VA) contract with a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider incorporating taxation and a ratchet mechanism for enhancing…
This paper offers a financial economic perspective on the optimal time (and age) at which the owner of a Variable Annuity (VA) policy with a Guaranteed Living Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) rider should initiate guaranteed lifetime income…
This report investigates the computation of option Greeks for European and Asian options under the Heston stochastic volatility model on GPU. We first implemented the exact simulation method proposed by Broadie and Kaya and used it as a…
We introduce a pricing kernel with time-varying volatility risk aversion to explain observed time variations in the shape of the pricing kernel. When combined with the Heston-Nandi GARCH model, this framework yields a tractable option…