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In this paper we are concerned with hitting times of a family of density-dependent Markov chains. A moderate deviation principle of the hitting time is given. The proof of the main theorem relies heavily on moderate deviations of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-15 Yuheng He , Xiaofeng Xue

Let $R$ be a continuous-time Markov process on the time interval $[0,1]$ with values in some state space $X$. We transform this reference process $R$ into $P:=f(X_0)\exp (-\int_0^1 V_t(X_t) dt) g(X_1)\,R$ where $f,g$ are nonnegative…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-16 Christian Léonard

We study continuous processes indexed by a special family of graphs. Processes indexed by vertices of graphs are known as probabilistic graphical models. Burdzy and Pal in their paper proposed a continuous version of graphical models --…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-26 Tvrtko Tadić

We study continuous time Markov processes on graphs. The notion of frequency is introduced, which serves well as a scaling factor between any Markov time of a continuous time Markov process and that of its jump chain. As an application, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jianjun Tian , Xiao-Song Lin

In this paper, we consider continuous-time Markov chains with a finite state space under nonlinear expectations. We define so-called Q-operators as an extension of Q-matrices or rate matrices to a nonlinear setup, where the nonlinearity is…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-17 Max Nendel

Matrix factor model is drawing growing attention for simultaneous two-way dimension reduction of well-structured matrix-valued observations. This paper focuses on robust statistical inference for matrix factor model in the ``diverging…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-07 Yong He , Xin-Bing Kong , Dong Liu , Ran Zhao

In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted indexed…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-05 Guglielmo D'Amico , Filippo Petroni

Questions are posed regarding the influence that the column sums of the transition probabilities of a stochastic matrix (with row sums all one) have on the stationary distribution, the mean first passage times and the Kemeny constant of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Jeffrey J. Hunter

Systems of interacting continuous-time Markov chains are a powerful model class, but inference is typically intractable in high dimensional settings. Auxiliary information, such as noisy observations, is typically only available at discrete…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Giosue Migliorini , Padhraic Smyth

The embedding problem of Markov matrices in Markov semigroups is a classic problem that regained a lot of impetus and activities through recent needs in phylogeny and population genetics. Here, we give an account for dimensions $d\leqslant…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-04 Michael Baake , Jeremy Sumner

The focus of this article is on entropy and Markov processes. We study the properties of functionals which are invariant with respect to monotonic transformations and analyze two invariant "additivity" properties: (i) existence of a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-12 A. N. Gorban , P. A. Gorban , G. Judge

A time-dependent finite-state Markov chain that uses doubly stochastic transition matrices, is considered. Entropic quantities that describe the randomness of the probability vectors, and also the randomness of the discrete paths, are…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-03-18 A. Vourdas

We present and explore a general method for deriving a Lie-Markov model from a finite semigroup. If the degree of the semigroup is $k$, the resulting model is a continuous-time Markov chain on $k$ states and, as a consequence of the product…

Group Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-05 Jeremy G. Sumner , Michael D. Woodhams

Many biological and medical questions can be modeled using time-to-event data in finite-state Markov chains, with the phase-type distribution describing intervals between events. We solve the inverse problem: given a phase-type…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-11-19 Ovidiu Radulescu , Dima Grigoriev , Matthias Seiss , Maria Douaihy , Mounia Lagha , Edouard Bertrand

Matrix factorization is a powerful data analysis tool. It has been used in multivariate time series analysis, leading to the decomposition of the series in a small set of latent factors. However, little is known on the statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Pierre Alquier , Nicolas Marie

We analyze a Markov chain, known as the product replacement chain, on the set of generating $n$-tuples of a fixed finite group $G$. We show that as $n \rightarrow \infty$, the total-variation mixing time of the chain has a cutoff at time…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-15 Yuval Peres , Ryokichi Tanaka , Alex Zhai

It was recently shown by Jimbo, Miwa and Smirnov that the correlation functions of a generalized XXZ chain associated with an inhomogeneous six-vertex model with disorder parameter $\alpha$ and with arbitrary inhomogeneities on the…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-12-08 Herman Boos , Frank Göhmann

We obtain an explicit representation for the Laplace transform of the waiting time for a wide class of distributions by solving the Wiener-Hopf factorization problem via the Hadamard product theorem. Under broad conditions it is shown that…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-04 Michael L. Wenocur

A common network inference problem, arising from real-world data constraints, is how to infer a dynamic network from its time-aggregated adjacency matrix and time-varying marginals (i.e., row and column sums). Prior approaches to this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-21 Serina Chang , Frederic Koehler , Zhaonan Qu , Jure Leskovec , Johan Ugander

This paper examines a class of singular stochastic control problems with convex objective functions. In Section 2, we use tools from convex analysis to derive necessary and sufficient first order conditions for this class of optimisation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-01-17 J. Sexton