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Causal inference relies on the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal estimates. Among sensitivity analysis methods proposed in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Yushu Zou , Liangyuan Hu , Amanda Ricciuto , Mark Deneau , Kuan Liu

We consider computationally-efficient estimation of population parameters when observations are subject to missing data. In particular, we consider estimation under the realizable contamination model of missing data in which an $\epsilon$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-18 Kabir Aladin Verchand , Ankit Pensia , Saminul Haque , Rohith Kuditipudi

Causal discovery from observational data is challenging, especially with large datasets and complex relationships. Traditional methods often struggle with scalability and capturing global structural information. To overcome these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Rezaur Rashid , Gabriel Terejanu

Semi-structured regression models enable the joint modeling of interpretable structured and complex unstructured feature effects. The structured model part is inspired by statistical models and can be used to infer the input-output…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Daniel Dold , David Rügamer , Beate Sick , Oliver Dürr

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

Classical causal inference assumes treatments meant for a given unit do not have an effect on other units. This assumption is violated in interference problems, where new types of spillover causal effects arise, and causal inference becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Ilya Shpitser , Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ryan Andrews

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

In various biomedical studies, analysis often focuses on data magnitudes, particularly when algebraic signs are irrelevant or lost. For repeated measures studies involving magnitude outcomes, incorporating random effects is essential as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-16 Wen Teng , Niall D. Ferguson , Ewan C. Goligher , Anna Heath

A fundamental challenge in causal inference with observational data is correct specification of a causal model. When there is model uncertainty, analysts may seek to use estimates from multiple candidate models that rely on distinct, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Rohit Bhattacharya , Ina Ocelli , Ted Westling

We present a method for incorporating missing data in non-parametric statistical learning without the need for imputation. We focus on a tree-based method, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), enhanced with "Missingness Incorporated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-14 Adam Kapelner , Justin Bleich

There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-30 Ka Kin Lam , Bo Wang

Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

Two of the principle tasks of causal inference are to define and estimate the effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest. Formally, such treatment effects are defined as a possibly functional summary of the data generating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-26 Herbert Susmann , Antoine Chambaz

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are routinely used for modeling relationships between a response variable and a set of covariates. The simple form of a GLM comes with easy interpretability, but also leads to concerns about model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-10 Davide Agnoletto , Tommaso Rigon , David B. Dunson

In the context of missing data, the identifiability or "recoverability" of the average causal effect (ACE) depends on causal and missingness assumptions. The latter can be depicted by adding variable-specific missingness indicators to…

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-03-23 Vikas Ramachandra

This paper focuses on drawing inference on the causal impact of an intervention at a specific time point, as manifested in an outcome variable over time. We operate on the interrupted time series framework and expand on approaches such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-07 Gianluca Giudice , Sara Geneletti , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos

It is common practice in using regression type models for inferring causal effects, that inferring the correct causal relationship requires extra covariates are included or ``adjusted for''. Without performing this adjustment erroneous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-18 David Rohde

Missing data in multiple variables is a common issue. We investigate the applicability of the framework of graphical models for handling missing data to a complex longitudinal pharmacological study of children with HIV treated with an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-12 Anastasiia Holovchak , Helen McIlleron , Paolo Denti , Michael Schomaker

We present a Bayesian procedure for estimation of pairwise intervention effects in a high-dimensional system of categorical variables. We assume that we have observational data generated from an unknown causal Bayesian network for which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-02 Vera Kvisgaard , Johan Pensar
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