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Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 Ali Malik , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Jiaming Song , Danny Nemer , Harlan Seymour , Stefano Ermon

Calibrated predictions are useful because their numerical values can be interpreted as probabilities. Calibration errors are therefore widely used to evaluate, compare, and tune probabilistic predictors. Recently, Haghtalab et al. (2024)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yuxuan Lu , Yifan Wu , Jason Hartline , Lunjia Hu

Computer model calibration is a crucial step in building a reliable computer model. In the face of massive physical observations, a fast estimation for the calibration parameters is urgently needed. To alleviate the computational burden, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Shurui Lv , Yan Wang , Jun Yu

The car-following behavior of individual drivers in real city traffic is studied on the basis of (publicly available) trajectory datasets recorded by a vehicle equipped with an radar sensor. By means of a nonlinear optimization procedure…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-08-25 Arne Kesting , Martin Treiber

The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Mira Jürgens , Thomas Mortier , Eyke Hüllermeier , Viktor Bengs , Willem Waegeman

This study examines effects of calibration errors on model assumptions and data--analytic tools in direct calibration assays. These effects encompass induced dependencies, inflated variances, and heteroscedasticity among the calibrated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-30 D. R. Jensen , D. E. Ramirez

The generalization performance of a risk prediction model can be evaluated by its calibration, which measures the agreement between predicted and observed outcomes on external validation data. Here, methods for assessing the calibration of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-31 Moritz Berger , Matthias Schmid

Accurate camera calibration is a precondition for many computer vision applications. Calibration errors, such as wrong model assumptions or imprecise parameter estimation, can deteriorate a system's overall performance, making the reliable…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-29 Annika Hagemann , Moritz Knorr , Holger Janssen , Christoph Stiller

While large training datasets generally offer improvement in model performance, the training process becomes computationally expensive and time consuming. Distributed learning is a common strategy to reduce the overall training time by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-22 Nicole Mücke , Enrico Reiss , Jonas Rungenhagen , Markus Klein

Classifier calibration does not always go hand in hand with the classifier's ability to separate the classes. There are applications where good classifier calibration, i.e. the ability to produce accurate probability estimates, is more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-26 Tuomo Alasalmi , Jaakko Suutala , Heli Koskimäki , Juha Röning

In this paper we develop a new approach to the calibration of polarimetric radar data based on two key ideas. The first is the use of in-scene trihedral corner reflectors not only for radiometric and geometric calibration but also to…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-09 Shane R. Cloude

Paper I of the series re-derived the radio interferometry measurement equation (RIME) from first principles, and extended the Jones formalism to the full-sky case, incorporating direction-dependent effects (DDEs). This paper aims to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2011-02-07 Oleg M. Smirnov

Cooperating radios can extend their communication range by adjusting their signals to ensure coherent combining at a destination radio. This technique is called distributed transmit beamforming. Beamforming (BF) relies on the BF radios…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-27 Samer Hanna , Danijela Cabric

Abstract Post hoc recalibration of prediction uncertainties of machine learning regression problems by isotonic regression might present a problem for bin-based calibration error statistics (e.g. ENCE). Isotonic regression often produces…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-09 Pascal Pernot

In many machine learning applications, it is important for the model to provide confidence scores that accurately capture its prediction uncertainty. Although modern learning methods have achieved great success in predictive accuracy,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Linjun Zhang , Zhun Deng , Kenji Kawaguchi , James Zou

In the presence of a missing response, reweighting the complete case subsample by the inverse of nonmissing probability is both intuitive and easy to implement. When the population totals of some auxiliary variables are known and when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-16 Kwun Chuen Gary Chan , Sheung Chi Phillip Yam

Inertial sensor calibration plays a progressively important role in many areas of research among which navigation engineering. By performing this task accurately, it is possible to significantly increase general navigation performance by…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-01 Gaetan Bakalli , Davide A. Cucci , Ahmed Radi , Naser El-Sheimy , Roberto Molinari , Olivier Scaillet , Stéphane Guerrier

How can we draw trustworthy scientific conclusions? One criterion is that a study can be replicated by independent teams. While replication is critically important, it is arguably insufficient. If a study is biased for some reason and other…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Yujin Jeong , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We report on a numerical evaluation of the statistical bootstrap as a technique for radio-interferometric imaging fidelity assessment. The development of a fidelity assessment technique is an important scientific prerequisite for automated…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 Athol Kemball , Adam Martinsek

Survival prediction often involves estimating the time-to-event distribution from censored datasets. Previous approaches have focused on enhancing discrimination and marginal calibration. In this paper, we highlight the significance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Shi-ang Qi , Yakun Yu , Russell Greiner