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This paper describes a new Monte Carlo method based on a novel stochastic potential switching algorithm. This algorithm enables the equilibrium properties of a system with potential $V$ to be computed using a Monte Carlo simulation for a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 C. H. Mak

This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Mathis Chagneux , Mathias Müller , Pierre Gloaguen , Sylvain Le Corff , Jimmy Olsson

A parameter estimation method is devised for a slow-fast stochastic dynamical system, where often only the slow component is observable. By using the observations only on the slow component, the system parameters are estimated by working on…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-03-20 Jian Ren , Jinqiao Duan

Distribution shifts are ubiquitous in real-world machine learning applications, posing a challenge to the generalization of models trained on one data distribution to another. We focus on scenarios where data distributions vary across…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Steven Wilkins-Reeves , Xu Chen , Qi Ma , Christine Agarwal , Aude Hofleitner

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

Rapidly decreasing tempered stable distributions are useful models for financial applications. However, there has been no exact method for simulation available in the literature. We remedy this by introducing an exact simulation method in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-09 Michael Grabchak

Markov cohort state-transition models have been the standard approach for simulating the prognosis of patients or, more generally, the life trajectories of individuals over a time period. Current approaches for estimating the variance of a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-07 Rowan Iskandar , Cassandra Berns

Monte Carlo is a versatile and frequently used tool in statistical physics and beyond. Correspondingly, the number of algorithms and variants reported in the literature is vast, and an overview is not easy to achieve. In this pedagogical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-01-04 Michael Kastner

Stable distribution is one of the attractive models that well describes fat-tail behaviors and scaling phenomena in various scientific fields. The approach based upon the method of moments yields a simple procedure for estimating stable law…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-24 Shinji Kakinaka , Ken Umeno

Estimating the density of a continuous random variable X has been studied extensively in statistics, in the setting where n independent observations of X are given a priori and one wishes to estimate the density from that. Popular methods…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-09 Pierre L'Ecuyer , Florian Puchhammer

Layered stable (multivariate) distributions and processes are defined and studied. A layered stable process combines stable trends of two different indices, one of them possibly Gaussian. More precisely, in short time, it is close to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-11 C. Houdré , R. Kawai

We improve a known result on the strong consistency of M-estimates of the regression parameters in a linear model for independent and identically distributed random errors under some mild conditions.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Xinghui Wang , Shuhe Hu

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

The literature in social network analysis has largely focused on methods and models which require complete network data; however there exist many networks which can only be studied via sampling methods due to the scale or complexity of the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-25 Haema Nilakanta , Zack W. Almquist , Galin L. Jones

In this article we consider the estimation of static parameters for partially observed diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, we assume that one must time-discretize the partially…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-20 Elsiddig Awadelkarim , Ajay Jasra , Hamza Ruzayqat

This paper explores the theory behind the rich and robust family of {\alpha}-stable distributions to estimate parameters from financial asset log-returns data. We discuss four-parameter estimation methods including the quantiles,…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-30 Michael Kateregga , Sure Mataramvura , David Taylor

The pointwise mutual information profile, or simply profile, is the distribution of pointwise mutual information for a given pair of random variables. One of its important properties is that its expected value is precisely the mutual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-30 Paweł Czyż , Frederic Grabowski , Julia E. Vogt , Niko Beerenwinkel , Alexander Marx

The univariate Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this article, we define a skewed version of the Birnbaum-Saunders…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-04-30 Artur J. Lemonte , Guillermo Martínez-Florez , Germán Moreno-Arenas

Multivariate extreme value distributions are a common choice for modelling multivariate extremes. In high dimensions, however, the construction of flexible and parsimonious models is challenging. We propose to combine bivariate max-stable…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-25 Shuang Hu , Zuoxiang Peng , Johan Segers

In Bayesian inference, an unknown measurement uncertainty is often quantified in terms of a Gamma distributed precision parameter, which is impractical when prior information on the standard deviation of the measurement uncertainty shall be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Manuel M. Eichenlaub
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