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Nonignorable missingness and noncompliance can occur even in well-designed randomized experiments making the intervention effect that the experiment was designed to estimate nonidentifiable. Nonparametric causal bounds provide a way to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-13 Erin E. Gabriel , Arvid Sjölander , Michael C. Sachs

To determine the welfare implications of price changes in demand data, we introduce a revealed preference relation over prices. We show that the absence of cycles in this relation characterizes a consumer who trades off the utility of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-03 Rahul Deb , Yuichi Kitamura , John K. -H. Quah , Jörg Stoye

Efficient estimation under bias sampling, censoring or truncation is a difficult question which has been partially answered and the usual estimators are not always consistent. Several biased designs are considered for models with variables…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-10-22 Odile Pons

This paper investigates the problem of bounding possible output from a counterfactual query given a set of observational data. While various works of literature have described methodologies to generate efficient algorithms that provide an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Aditya Kelvianto Sidharta

Probabilistic independence can dramatically simplify the task of eliciting, representing, and computing with probabilities in large domains. A key technique in achieving these benefits is the idea of graphical modeling. We survey existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Fahiem Bacchus , Adam J. Grove

Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Ramaravind Kommiya Mothilal , Amit Sharma , Chenhao Tan

Model interpretability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic decisions have on humans. Counterfactual explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Ana Lucic , Harrie Oosterhuis , Hinda Haned , Maarten de Rijke

This article introduces a novel nonparametric methodology for Generalized Linear Models which combines the strengths of the binary regression and latent variable formulations for categorical data, while overcoming their disadvantages.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-12 K. P. Chowdhury

Counterfactual estimation using synthetic controls is one of the most successful recent methodological developments in causal inference. Despite its popularity, the current description only considers time series aligned across units and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Alexis Bellot , Mihaela van der Schaar

Nonparanormal models describe the joint distribution of multivariate responses via latent Gaussian, and thus parametric, copulae while allowing flexible nonparametric marginals. Some aspects of such distributions, for example conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Torsten Hothorn

No physical measurement can be performed with infinite precision. This leaves a loophole in the standard no-go arguments against non-contextual hidden variables. All such arguments rely on choosing special sets of quantum-mechanical…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-10-31 Rob Clifton , Adrian Kent

In this paper, following an elementary line of thought which somewhat differs from the usual one, we prove once more that any deterministic theory predictively equivalent to quantum mechanics unavoidably exhibits a contextual character. The…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 GianCarlo Ghirardi , Karl Wienand

Parametric causal modelling techniques rarely provide functionality for counterfactual estimation, often at the expense of modelling complexity. Since causal estimations depend on the family of functions used to model the data, simplistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-16 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià

Counterfactual explanations for machine learning models are used to find minimal interventions to the feature values such that the model changes the prediction to a different output or a target output. A valid counterfactual explanation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-23 Shravan Kumar Sajja , Sumanta Mukherjee , Satyam Dwivedi

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Raaz Dwivedi , Katherine Tian , Sabina Tomkins , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy , Devavrat Shah

Referred to as the third rung of the causal inference ladder, counterfactual queries typically ask the "What if ?" question retrospectively. The standard approach to estimate counterfactuals resides in using a structural equation model that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Edward De Brouwer

We implement nonparametric revealed-preference tests of subjective expected utility theory and its generalizations. We find that a majority of subjects' choices are consistent with the maximization of some utility function. They respond to…

General Economics · Economics 2021-05-04 Federico Echenique , Taisuke Imai , Kota Saito

Counterfactual explanations are a prominent example of post-hoc interpretability methods in the explainable Artificial Intelligence research domain. They provide individuals with alternative scenarios and a set of recommendations to achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Andrea Ferrario , Michele Loi

Barseghyan and Molinari (2023) give sufficient conditions for semi-nonparametric point identification of parameters of interest in a mixture model of decision-making under risk, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity in utility functions and…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-19 Matias D. Cattaneo , Xinwei Ma , Yusufcan Masatlioglu