English
Related papers

Related papers: Beyond Confidence Regions: Tight Bayesian Ambiguit…

200 papers

Probabilistic time series forecasting has played critical role in decision-making processes due to its capability to quantify uncertainties. Deep forecasting models, however, could be prone to input perturbations, and the notion of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-25 TaeHo Yoon , Youngsuk Park , Ernest K. Ryu , Yuyang Wang

Batch reinforcement learning (RL) is important to apply RL algorithms to many high stakes tasks. Doing batch RL in a way that yields a reliable new policy in large domains is challenging: a new decision policy may visit states and actions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-23 Yao Liu , Adith Swaminathan , Alekh Agarwal , Emma Brunskill

In this paper, we consider Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with error states. Error states are those states entering which is undesirable or dangerous. We define the risk with respect to a policy as the probability of entering such a state…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-09-13 P. Geibel , F. Wysotzki

We study the tradeoff between consistency and robustness in the context of a single-trajectory time-varying Markov Decision Process (MDP) with untrusted machine-learned advice. Our work departs from the typical approach of treating advice…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Tongxin Li , Yiheng Lin , Shaolei Ren , Adam Wierman

In this paper, we study the Bayesian risk-averse formulation in reinforcement learning (RL). To address the epistemic uncertainty due to a lack of data, we adopt the Bayesian Risk Markov Decision Process (BRMDP) to account for the parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Yuhao Wang , Enlu Zhou

Robustness of linear systems with constant coefficients is considered. There exist methods and tools for analyzing the stability of systems with random or deterministic uncertainties. At the same time, there are no approaches for the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-08 Andrey Tremba

Neural network NLP models are vulnerable to small modifications of the input that maintain the original meaning but result in a different prediction. In this paper, we focus on robustness of text classification against word substitutions,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-05-06 Emanuele La Malfa , Min Wu , Luca Laurenti , Benjie Wang , Anthony Hartshorn , Marta Kwiatkowska

It is common to address the curse of dimensionality in Markov decision processes (MDPs) by exploiting low-rank representations. This motivates much of the recent theoretical study on linear MDPs. However, most approaches require a given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-09 Tianjun Zhang , Tongzheng Ren , Mengjiao Yang , Joseph E. Gonzalez , Dale Schuurmans , Bo Dai

Robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs) provide a promising framework for computing reliable policies in the face of model errors. Many successful reinforcement learning algorithms build on variations of policy-gradient methods, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Qiuhao Wang , Chin Pang Ho , Marek Petrik

Trusting machine learning algorithms requires having confidence in their outputs. Confidence is typically interpreted in terms of model reliability, where a model is reliable if it produces a high proportion of correct outputs. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Jonathan Vandenburgh

Interval Markov decision processes (IMDPs) generalise classical MDPs by having interval-valued transition probabilities. They provide a powerful modelling tool for probabilistic systems with an additional variation or uncertainty that…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-07-07 Ernst Moritz Hahn , Vahid Hashemi , Holger Hermanns , Morteza Lahijanian , Andrea Turrini

In this paper, we develop efficient randomized algorithms for estimating probabilistic robustness margin and constructing robustness degradation curve for uncertain dynamic systems. One remarkable feature of these algorithms is their…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-13 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou , Jorge L. Aravena

We propose a general solution to the problem of robust Bayesian inference in complex settings where outliers may be present. In practice, the automation of robust Bayesian analyses is important in the many applications involving large and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Jeremie Houssineau , David J. Nott

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Yuqi Yang , Ying Jin

This paper studies the problem of distributionally robust model predictive control (MPC) using total variation distance ambiguity sets. For a discrete-time linear system with additive disturbances, we provide a conditional value-at-risk…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-27 Anushri Dixit , Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Joel W. Burdick

We propose and analyze a continuous-time robust reinforcement learning framework for optimal stopping under ambiguity. In this framework, an agent chooses a robust exploratory stopping time motivated by two objectives: robust…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-17 Junyan Ye , Hoi Ying Wong , Kyunghyun Park

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

We present an standard constraints generation algorithm to find an explicit set whose robustness is equal to the robustness of the feasible solution set of a combinatorial optimization problem with cost uncertainty. Computational experience…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-11 Alejandro Crema

We present a general framework for applying learning algorithms and heuristical guidance to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of our techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive…

We explore a novel methodology for constructing confidence regions for parameters of linear models, using predictions from any arbitrary predictor. Our framework requires minimal assumptions on the noise and can be extended to functions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-30 Charles Guille-Escuret , Eugene Ndiaye