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This paper deals with the identification of linear stochastic dynamical systems, where the unknowns include system coefficients and noise variances. Conventional approaches that rely on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) require…
This work introduces the concept of parametric Gaussian processes (PGPs), which is built upon the seemingly self-contradictory idea of making Gaussian processes parametric. Parametric Gaussian processes, by construction, are designed to…
We develop an automated variational inference method for Bayesian structured prediction problems with Gaussian process (GP) priors and linear-chain likelihoods. Our approach does not need to know the details of the structured likelihood…
We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…
Learning-based model predictive control (MPC) can enhance control performance by correcting for model inaccuracies, enabling more precise state trajectory predictions than traditional MPC. A common approach is to model unknown residual…
This article advocates the use of conformal prediction (CP) methods for Gaussian process (GP) interpolation to enhance the calibration of prediction intervals. We begin by illustrating that using a GP model with parameters selected by…
Linear systems occur throughout engineering and the sciences, most notably as differential equations. In many cases the forcing function for the system is unknown, and interest lies in using noisy observations of the system to infer the…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
Accurately predicting the future capacity and remaining useful life of batteries is necessary to ensure reliable system operation and to minimise maintenance costs. The complex nature of battery degradation has meant that mechanistic…
Derivatives are a key nonparametric functional in wide-ranging applications where the rate of change of an unknown function is of interest. In the Bayesian paradigm, Gaussian processes (GPs) are routinely used as a flexible prior for…
This paper introduces an innovative approach to enhance distributed cooperative learning using Gaussian process (GP) regression in multi-agent systems (MASs). The key contribution of this work is the development of an elective learning…
The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…
Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) is widely used for the optimization of computationally expensive black-box functions. It uses a surrogate modeling technique based on Gaussian Processes (Kriging). However, due to the use of a stationary…
Mechanistic knowledge about the physical world is virtually always expressed via partial differential equations (PDEs). Recently, there has been a surge of interest in probabilistic PDE solvers -- Bayesian statistical models mostly based on…
Gaussian process (GP) models that combine both categorical and continuous input variables have found use in analysis of longitudinal data and computer experiments. However, standard inference for these models has the typical cubic scaling,…
Transformed Gaussian Processes (TGPs) are stochastic processes specified by transforming samples from the joint distribution from a prior process (typically a GP) using an invertible transformation; increasing the flexibility of the base…
Gaussian processes (GPs) have gained popularity as flexible machine learning models for regression and function approximation with an in-built method for uncertainty quantification. However, GPs suffer when the amount of training data is…
Gaussian process (GP) methods have been widely studied recently, especially for large-scale systems with big data and even more extreme cases when data is sparse. Key advantages of these methods consist in: 1) the ability to provide…
Adaptive learning is necessary for non-stationary environments where the learning machine needs to forget past data distribution. Efficient algorithms require a compact model update to not grow in computational burden with the incoming data…