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Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-25 Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei

The tree-based ensembles are known for their outstanding performance in classification and regression problems characterized by feature vectors represented by mixed-type variables from various ranges and domains. However, considering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Patryk Wielopolski , Maciej Zięba

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Athénaïs Gautier , David Ginsbourger , Guillaume Pirot

We introduce a hierarchical nonparametric model for probability measures based on a multi-resolution transformation of probability distributions. The model allows a varying amount of shrinkage to be applied to data features of different…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-31 Li Ma

This paper considers a multivariate spatial random field, with each component having univariate marginal distributions of the skew-Gaussian type. We assume that the field is defined spatially on the unit sphere embedded in $\mathbb{R}^3$,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-05 Alfredo Alegría , Sandra Caro , Moreno Bevilacqua , Emilio Porcu , Jorge Clarke

We show that the projection of an axisymmetric three-dimensional orientation distribution to two dimensions can be cast into an Abel transform. Based on this correspondence, we derive an exact integral inverse, which allows for the…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2023-08-02 Philipp A. Kloza , James A. Elliott

Trees have long been used as a graphical representation of species relationships. However complex evolutionary events, such as genetic reassortments or hybrid speciations which occur commonly in viruses, bacteria and plants, do not fit into…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-07-24 Sebastien Roch , Kun-Chieh Wang

Consider bivariate observations $(X_1,Y_1), \ldots, (X_n,Y_n) \in \mathbb{R}\times \mathbb{R}$ with unknown conditional distributions $Q_x$ of $Y$, given that $X = x$. The goal is to estimate these distributions under the sole assumption…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-31 Alexandre Mösching , Lutz Duembgen

Tree-based ensemble methods such as random forests, gradient-boosted trees, and Bayesianadditive regression trees have been successfully used for regression problems in many applicationsand research studies. In this paper, we study ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Alexandre Seiller , Éric Gaussier , Emilie Devijver , Marianne Clausel , Sami Alkhoury

Computing the similarity between two probability distributions is a recurring theme across control. We introduce a unified family of distances between the probability distributions of two random variables that is based on the discrepancy…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-03 Alexandros E. Tzikas , Arec Jamgochian , Nazim Kemal Ure , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Stephen P. Boyd

Random projection is often used to project higher-dimensional vectors onto a lower-dimensional space, while approximately preserving their pairwise distances. It has emerged as a powerful tool in various data processing tasks and has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Wenye Li , Shuzhong Zhang

The disease spreading on complex networks is studied in SIR model. Simulations on empirical complex networks reveal two specific regimes of disease spreading: local containment and epidemic outbreak. The variables measuring the extent of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-04-02 Alen Lancic , Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Mile Sikic , Hrvoje Stefancic

Bayesian phylogenetics is vital for understanding evolutionary dynamics, and requires accurate and efficient approximation of posterior distributions over trees. In this work, we develop a variational Bayesian approach for ultrametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-16 Evan Sidrow , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Lloyd T. Elliott

We present a new probabilistic proof of Otter's asymptotic formula for the number of unlabelled trees with a given number of vertices. We additionally prove a new approximation result, showing that the total variation distance between…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Benedikt Stufler

Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-17 Soudeep Deb , Rishideep Roy , Shubhabrata Das

A special type of binomial splitting process is studied. Such a process can be used to model a high-dimensional corner parking problem, as well as the depth of random PATRICIA tries (a special class of digital tree data structures). The…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-27 Michael Fuchs , Hsien-Kuei Hwang , Yoshiaki Itoh , Hosam H. Mahmoud

In decision theoretic estimation of parameters in Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^p$, the action space is chosen to be the convex closure of the estimand space. In this paper, the concept has been extended to the estimation of circular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-28 Kanika , Somesh Kumar

This paper introduces the modeling of circular data with excess zeros under a longitudinal framework, where the response is a circular variable and the covariates can be both linear and circular in nature. In the literature, various…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Prajamitra Bhuyan , Soutik Halder , Jayant Jha

Random variables and their distributions are a central part in many areas of statistical methods. The Distributions.jl package provides Julia users and developers tools for working with probability distributions, leveraging Julia features…

This article deals with random projections applied as a data reduction technique for Bayesian regression analysis. We show sufficient conditions under which the entire $d$-dimensional distribution is approximately preserved under random…