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The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2017-11-15 Rajat Karnatak , Holger Kantz , Stephan Bialonski

Recent advances in transformer architectures have revolutionised natural language processing, but their application to healthcare domains presents unique challenges. Patient timelines are characterised by irregular sampling, variable…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Linglong Qian , Zina Ibrahim

Sepsis poses a major global health threat, accounting for millions of deaths annually and significant economic costs. Accurately predicting the risk of mortality in sepsis patients enables early identification, promotes the efficient…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-11 Fanglin Dong

Sepsis is a severe medical condition caused by a dysregulated host response to infection that has a high incidence and mortality rate. Even with such a high-level occurrence rate, the detection and diagnosis of sepsis continues to pose a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-27 Jeffrey R. Smith , Yao Xie , Christopher S. Josef , Rishikesan Kamaleswaran

Sepsis is a severe condition that causes the body to respond incorrectly to an infection. This reaction can subsequently cause organ failure, a major one being acute kidney injury (AKI). For septic patients, approximately 50% develop AKI,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Aleyeh Roknaldin , Zehao Zhang , Jiayuan Xu , Kamiar Alaei , Maryam Pishgar

Sepsis is a syndrome that develops in the body in response to the presence of an infection. Characterized by severe organ dysfunction, sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) worldwide. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-20 Tucker Stewart , Katherine Stern , Grant O'Keefe , Ankur Teredesai , Juhua Hu

In clinical studies, the illness-death model is often used to describe disease progression. A subject starts disease-free, may develop the disease and then die, or die directly. In clinical practice, disease can only be diagnosed at…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-02 Marta Spreafico , Anja J. Rueten-Budde , Hein Putter , Marta Fiocco

Sequential (online) change-point detection involves continuously monitoring time-series data and triggering an alarm when shifts in the data distribution are detected. We propose an algorithm for real-time identification of alterations in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yuhan Tian , Abolfazl Safikhani

We study the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) in the context of critical transitions modelled by fast-slow stochastic dynamical systems. We establish a new link between the dynamical theory of critical transitions with the statistical aspects…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2019-01-30 Boumediene Hamzi , Christian Kuehn , Sameh Mohamed

This paper explores the mechanisms behind extreme financial events, specifically market crashes, by employing the theoretical framework of phase transitions. We focus on endogenous crashes, driven by internal market dynamics, and model…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-14 Revant Nayar , Minhajul Islam

Over the past decade the rate of care unit (CU) use in the United States has been increasing. With an aging population and ever-growing demand for medical care, effective management of patients' transitions among different care facilities…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-11 Hongteng Xu , Weichang Wu , Shamim Nemati , Hongyuan Zha

Synapses change on multiple timescales, ranging from milliseconds to minutes, due to a combination of both short- and long-term plasticity. Here we develop an extension of the common Generalized Linear Model to infer both short- and…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-15 Ganchao Wei , Ian H. Stevenson

We present an approach for the detection of sharp change points (short-lived and persistent) in nonlinear and nonstationary dynamic systems under high levels of noise by tracking the local phase and amplitude synchronization among the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-08-04 Ashif Sikandar Iquebal , Satish Bukkapatnam , Arun Srinivasa

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2012-04-30 Carl Boettiger , Alan Hastings

Sepsis is the leading cause of in-hospital mortality in the USA. Early sepsis onset prediction and diagnosis could significantly improve the survival of sepsis patients. Existing predictive models are usually trained on high-quality data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Changchang Yin , Pin-Yu Chen , Bingsheng Yao , Dakuo Wang , Jeffrey Caterino , Ping Zhang

Background and Objectives: We aim to establish deep learning models to optimize the individualized energy delivery for septic patients. Methods and Study Design: We conducted a study of adult septic patients in Intensive Care Unit (ICU),…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-06 Lu Wang , Li Chang , Ruipeng Zhang , Kexun Li , Yu Wang , Wei Chen , Xuanlin Feng , Mingwei Sun , Qi Wang , Charles Damien Lu , Jun Zeng , Hua Jiang

Conditions such as insomnia, cardiac arrhythmia and jet-lag share a common feature: they are all related to the ability of biological systems to synchronize with the day-night cycle. When organisms lose resilience, this ability of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-27 Pablo Rodríguez-Sánchez , Egbert H. van Nes , Marten Scheffer

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2017-02-28 Christian Kuehn , Gerd Zschaler , Thilo Gross

Electronic health records arise from the complex interaction between patients and the healthcare system. This observation process of interactions, referred to as clinical presence, often impacts observed outcomes. When using electronic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Vincent Jeanselme , Glen Martin , Matthew Sperrin , Niels Peek , Brian Tom , Jessica Barrett

Stemming from physics and later applied to other fields such as ecology, the theory of critical transitions suggests that some regime shifts are preceded by statistical early warning signals. Reddit's r/place experiment, a large-scale…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-03-23 Guillaume Falmagne , Anna B. Stephenson , Simon A. Levin
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