Related papers: WKB-type-of approximation for rare event statistic…
We develop a spectral formulation and a stationary WKB approximation for calculating the probabilities of rare events (large deviations from the mean) in systems of reacting particles with infinite-range interaction, describable by a master…
We study the statistics of extinction and blowup times in well-mixed systems of stochastically reacting particles. We focus on the short-time tail, $T \to 0$, of the extinction- or blowup-time distribution $\mathcal{P}_m(T)$, where $m$ is…
This paper is concerned with an efficient numerical method for solving the 1D stationary Schr\"odinger equation in the highly oscillatory regime. Being a hybrid, analytical-numerical approach it does not have to resolve each oscillation, in…
The numerical quantification of the statistics of rare events in stochastic processes is a challenging computational problem. We present a sampling method that constructs an ensemble of stochastic trajectories that are constrained to have…
Although many computational methods for rare event sampling exist, this type of calculation is not usually practical for general nonequilibrium conditions, with macroscopically irreversible dynamics and away from both stationary and…
In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…
We develop an efficient method to calculate probabilities of large deviations from the typical behavior (rare events) in reaction--diffusion systems. The method is based on a semiclassical treatment of underlying "quantum" Hamiltonian,…
This paper is concerned with the efficient numerical computation of solutions to the 1D stationary Schr\"odinger equation in the semiclassical limit in the highly oscillatory regime. A previous approach to this problem based on explicitly…
This paper is dedicated to the efficient numerical computation of solutions to the 1D stationary Schr\"odinger equation in the highly oscillatory regime. We compute an approximate solution based on the well-known WKB-ansatz, which relies on…
In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques to estimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-istic dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysis algorithms can…
This paper introduces a novel deep learning method, called DeepWKB, for estimating the invariant distribution of randomly perturbed systems via its Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation $u_\epsilon(x) = Q(\epsilon)^{-1}…
In large but finite populations, weak demographic stochasticity due to random birth and death events can lead to population extinction. The process is analogous to the escaping problem of trapped particles under random forces. Methods…
We propose an extension of Wenzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation for solving the Schr\"odinger equation. A set of coupled differential equations is obtained by considering an ansatz of the wave function with an auxiliary condition on…
Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental…
We study rare event simulations of semimartingale reflecting Brownian motions (SRBMs) in an orthant. The rare event of interest is that a $d$-dimensional positive recurrent SRBM enters the set $B_n = \{z\in\mathbb{R}^d: \sum_{k=1}^d z_k =…
The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agency may be interested by the…
We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…
We have obtained a set of coupled differential equations from the continuous limit of the transfer matrix method. Decoupling such a set of equations yields an extension to the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation for the…
The steady state of the Fokker-Planck equation corresponding to a density dependent one-step process is approximated by a suitable normal distribution. Starting from the master equations of the process, written in terms of the time…
The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…