Related papers: Non-Linear Non-Stationary Heteroscedasticity Volat…
Safety-critical navigation applications require that estimation errors be reliably quantified and bounded. This can be challenging for linear dynamic systems if the process noise or measurement errors have uncertain time correlation. In…
Multi-modal densities appear frequently in time series and practical applications. However, they cannot be represented by common state estimators, such as the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), which…
mmWave radars have recently gathered significant attention as a means to track human movement within indoor environments. Widely adopted Kalman filter tracking methods experience performance degradation when the underlying movement is…
In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…
We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…
We consider a nonlinear filtering problem of multiscale non-Gaussian signal processes and observation processes with jumps. Firstly, we prove that the dimension for the signal system can be reduced by a homogenized approach. Secondly,…
Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…
In this paper we address the statistical problem of testing if a stationary process is Gaussian. The observation consists in a finite sample path of the process. Using a random projection technique introduced and studied in Cuesta-Albertos…
This work proposes a new method for simultaneous probabilistic identification and control of an observable, fully-actuated mechanical system. Identification is achieved by conditioning stochastic process priors on observations of…
The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state…
Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) offer a powerful stochastic modeling framework that combines deterministic trajectories with random perturbations at random times. Estimating their local characteristics (particularly the…
A continuously measured quantum system with multiple jump channels gives rise to a stochastic process described by random jump times and random emitted symbols, representing each jump channel. While much is known about the waiting time…
Model predictive control is an advanced control approach for multivariable systems with constraints, which is reliant on an accurate dynamic model. Most real dynamic models are however affected by uncertainties, which can lead to…
In this paper, we introduce a new method for testing the stationarity of time series, where the test statistic is obtained from measuring and maximising the difference in the second-order structure over pairs of randomly drawn intervals.…
In this paper, we introduce and analyze the fractional Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) stochastic volatility model. The proposed model is based upon two desirable properties of the long-term variance process suggested by the empirical…
The stationarity is assumed in vanilla Hawkes process, which reduces the model complexity but introduces a strong assumption. In this paper, we propose a fast multi-resolution segmentation algorithm to capture the time-varying…
The Path-dependent Neural Jump ODE (PD-NJ-ODE) is a model for online prediction of generic (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic processes with irregular (in time) and potentially incomplete (with respect to coordinates) observations. It is a…
Non-Gaussian noise influences many complex out-of-equilibrium systems on a wide range of scales such as quantum devices, active and living matter, and financial markets. Despite the ubiquitous nature of non-Gaussian noise, its effect on…
In this paper, we consider the closed-loop control problem of nonlinear robotic systems in the presence of probabilistic uncertainties and disturbances. More precisely, we design a state feedback controller that minimizes deviations of the…
We propose a simple stochastic model of cascading transport in wave number space to clarify the origin of intermittent behavior of fully-developed fluid turbulence. In spite of lack of nonlinearity and viscosity the model gives non-Gaussian…