Related papers: Evaluating Range Value at Risk Forecasts
Systemic risk is the risk that a company- or industry-level risk could trigger a huge collapse of another or even the whole institution. Various systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature to quantify the domino and…
A long memory and non-linear realized volatility model class is proposed for direct Value at Risk (VaR) forecasting. This model, referred to as RNN-HAR, extends the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model, a framework known for efficiently…
In this paper we introduce a novel approach to risk estimation based on nonlinear factor models - the "StressVaR" (SVaR). Developed to evaluate the risk of hedge funds, the SVaR appears to be applicable to a wide range of investments. Its…
Elicitability is a property of $\mathbb{R}^k$-valued functionals defined on a set of distribution functions. These functionals represent statistical properties of a distribution, for instance its mean, variance, or median. They are called…
We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…
In this paper, we provide extended convolution bounds for the Fr\'{e}chet problem and discuss related implications in quantitative risk management. First, we establish a new form of inequality for the Range-Value-at-Risk (RVaR). Based on…
This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…
This paper is dedicated to the consistency of systemic risk measures with respect to stochastic dependence. It compares two alternative notions of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) available in the current literature. These notions are both…
Evaluating rare-event forecasts is challenging because standard metrics collapse as event prevalence declines. Measures such as F1-score, AUPRC, MCC, and accuracy induce degenerate thresholds -- converging to zero or one -- and their values…
We propose a distributionally robust approach to risk-sensitive estimation of an unknown signal x from an observed signal y. The unknown signal and observation are modeled as random vectors whose joint probability distribution is unknown,…
Given measurements from sensors and a set of standard forces, an optimization based approach to identify weakness in structures is introduced. The key novelty lies in letting the load and measurements to be random variables. Subsequently…
In safety-critical decision-making, the environment may evolve over time, and the learner adjusts its risk level accordingly. This work investigates risk-averse online optimization in dynamic environments with varying risk levels, employing…
This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false…
This paper introduces and develops a novel variable importance score function in the context of ensemble learning and demonstrates its appeal both theoretically and empirically. Our proposed score function is simple and more straightforward…
We consider a class of risk-averse submodular maximization problems (RASM) where the objective is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of a random nondecreasing submodular function at a given risk level. We propose valid inequalities and an…
The issue of model risk in default modeling has been known since inception of the Academic literature in the field. However, a rigorous treatment requires a description of all the possible models, and a measure of the distance between a…
De Finetti's optimal reinsurance is a set of contracts, one for each risk in a portfolio, that caps the retained aggregate variance to a pre-specified level while minimizing total expected loss. The premiums are determined using the…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…
Value at risk and expected shortfall are increasingly popular tail risk measures in the financial risk management field. Both academia and financial institutions are working to improve tail risk forecasts in order to meet the requirements…
The standard approach to risk-averse control is to use the Exponential Utility (EU) functional, which has been studied for several decades. Like other risk-averse utility functionals, EU encodes risk aversion through an increasing convex…