Related papers: Unified Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Risk M…
The paper derives saddlepoint expansions for conditional expectations in the form of $\mathsf{E}[\overline{X} | \overline{\mathbf Y} = {\mathbf a}]$ and $\mathsf{E}[\overline{X} | \overline{\mathbf Y} \geq {\mathbf a}]$ for the sample mean…
The collective risk model (CRM) for frequency and severity is an important tool for retail insurance ratemaking, macro-level catastrophic risk forecasting, as well as operational risk in banking regulation. This model, which is initially…
We study the multiplicative hazards model with intermittently observed longitudinal covariates and time-varying coefficients. For such models, the existing ad hoc approach, such as the last value carried forward, is biased. We propose a…
We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail…
The Burr III distribution is used in a wide variety of fields of lifetime data analysis, reliability theory, and financial literature, etc. It is defined on the positive axis and has two shape parameters, say $c$ and $k$. These shape…
We demonstrate that machine learning methods provide a powerful framework for modelling conditional asymmetric risk. Using a large cross-section of US stocks and a comprehensive set of firm characteristics, we show that allowing for…
Gaussian process (GP) regression has been widely used in supervised machine learning due to its flexibility and inherent ability to describe uncertainty in function estimation. In the context of control, it is seeing increasing use for…
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…
Intuitive human-machine interfaces may be developed using pattern classification to estimate executed human motions from electromyogram (EMG) signals generated during muscle contraction. The continual use of EMG-based interfaces gradually…
In this article, we develop a semiparametric Bayesian estimation and model selection approach for partially linear additive models in conditional quantile regression. The asymmetric Laplace distribution provides a mechanism for Bayesian…
In many situations we are interested in modeling real data where the response distribution, even conditionally on the covariates, presents asymmetry and/or heavy/light tails. In these situations, it is more suitable to consider models based…
Borrowing external data can improve estimation efficiency but may introduce bias when populations differ in covariate distributions or outcome variability. A proper balance needs to be maintained between the two datasets to justify the…
We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…
This paper proposes a Vector Autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is widespread in many…
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…
Finite element model updating is challenging because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield responses that are similar with respect to…
It is proposed in the literature that in some complicated problems maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) are not suitable or even do not exist. An alternative to MLE for estimation of the parameters is the Bayesian method. The Markov chain…
Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…
In this paper we present a practical Bayesian self-supervised learning method with Cyclical Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (cSGHMC). Within this framework, we place a prior over the parameters of a self-supervised learning…