Related papers: Unified Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Risk M…
The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…
In this paper we take up Bayesian inference in general multivariate stable distributions. We exploit the representation of Matsui and Takemura (2009) for univariate projections, and the representation of the distributions in terms of their…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider time-consistent, dynamic risk metrics as objective functions to…
We present a Bayesian nonparametric model for conditional distribution estimation using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The generative model we use is based on rejection sampling from a base model. Typical of BART models, our…
We consider the problems of estimation and optimization of two popular convex risk measures: utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) and Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk. We extend these risk measures to cover possibly unbounded random…
There are various measures of predictive uncertainty in the literature, but their relationships to each other remain unclear. This paper uses a decomposition of statistical pointwise risk into components, associated with different sources…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…
We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…
In this article, we proposed a new probability distribution named as power Maxwell distribution (PMaD). It is another extension of Maxwell distribution (MaD) which would lead more flexibility to analyze the data with non-monotone failure…
Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…
We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…
In various industrial contexts, estimating the distribution of unobserved random vectors Xi from some noisy indirect observations H(Xi) + Ui is required. If the relation between Xi and the quantity H(Xi), measured with the error Ui, is…
Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…
In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…
This paper proposes a new randomized strategy for adaptive MCMC using Bayesian optimization. This approach applies to non-differentiable objective functions and trades off exploration and exploitation to reduce the number of potentially…
Autoregressive (AR) time series models are widely used in parametric spectral estimation (SE), where the power spectral density (PSD) of the time series is approximated by that of the \emph{best-fit} AR model, which is available in closed…
A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…
We develop a novel Empirical Bayes methodology for prediction under check loss in high-dimensional Gaussian models. The check loss is a piecewise linear loss function having differential weights for measuring the amount of underestimation…
For many cancer sites low-dose risks are not known and must be extrapolated from those observed in groups exposed at much higher levels of dose. Measurement error can substantially alter the dose-response shape and hence the extrapolated…
In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…