Related papers: Space-efficient estimation of empirical tail depen…
Correlation and spectral analysis represent the standard tools to study interdependence in statistical data. However, for the stochastic processes with heavy-tailed distributions such that the variance diverges, these tools are inadequate.…
Key to effective generic, or "black-box", variational inference is the selection of an approximation to the target density that balances accuracy and speed. Copula models are promising options, but calibration of the approximation can be…
Given a finite collection of stochastic alternatives, we study the problem of sequentially allocating a fixed sampling budget to identify the optimal alternative with a high probability, where the optimal alternative is defined as the one…
Starting from the characterization of extreme-value copulas based on max-stability, large-sample tests of extreme-value dependence for multivariate copulas are studied. The two key ingredients of the proposed tests are the empirical copula…
Operator regular variation of a multivariate distribution can be decomposed into the operator tail dependence of the underlying copula and the regular variation of the univariate marginals. In this paper, we introduce operator tail…
We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…
Quantifying uncertainty in future climate projections is hindered by the prohibitive computational cost of running physical climate models, which severely limits the availability of training data. We propose a data-efficient framework for…
In this article, we study tests of independence for data with arbitrary distributions in the non-serial case, i.e., for independent and identically distributed random vectors, as well as in the serial case, i.e., for time series. These…
The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…
Multivariate mixed-type outcomes are difficult to model jointly, and additional complexity arises when both marginal effects and dependence structures vary with a covariate such as age or time. Existing approaches often impose restrictive…
This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify the directional dependence of extreme events between two variables. The proposed approach is designed to capture asymmetric tail dependence by studying conditional tail expectations of…
Extremal dependence describes the strength of correlation between the largest observations of two variables. It is usually measured with symmetric dependence coefficients that do not depend on the order of the variables. In many cases,…
We introduce a new method for estimating the parameter of the bivariate Clayton copulas within the framework of Algorithmic Inference. The method consists of a variant of the standard boot-strapping procedure for inferring random…
When the copula of the conditional distribution of two random variables given a covariate does not depend on the value of the covariate, two conflicting intuitions arise about the best possible rate of convergence attainable by…
Tail dependence models for distributions attracted to a max-stable law are fitted using observations above a high threshold. To cope with spatial, high-dimensional data, a rank-based M-estimator is proposed relying on bivariate margins…
We study the behavior of bivariate empirical copula process $\mathbb{G}_n(\cdot,\cdot)$ on pavements $[0,k_n/n]^2$ of $[0,1]^2,$ where $k_n$ is a sequence of positive constants fulfilling some conditions. We provide a upper bound for the…
Risk measures like Marginal Expected Shortfall and Marginal Mean Excess quantify conditional risk and in particular, aid in the understanding of systemic risk. In many such scenarios, models exhibiting heavy tails in the margins and…
This paper extends the analysis of bivariate seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) Tobit model by modeling its nonlinear dependence structure through the Clayton copula. The ability in capturing/modeling the lower tail dependence of the SUR…
Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this work and allow for more powerful validations compared to point forecasts. Our aim is to use bivariate copulas in order…
We define in a probabilistic way a parametric family of multivariate extreme value distributions. We derive its copula, which is a mixture of several complete dependent copulas and total independent copulas, and the bivariate tail…