Related papers: Alternative modelling and inference methods for cl…
In samples from a heavy-tailed distribution a second-order approximation is often use to approximate the tail function. Based on the parameters of the approximation, an optimal sample fraction can be estimated which is then used to estimate…
Likelihood-based procedures are a common way to estimate tail dependence parameters. They are not applicable, however, in non-differentiable models such as those arising from recent max-linear structural equation models. Moreover, they can…
In this paper, non-life insurance claims were modelled under the three parameter discrete generalised Pareto distribution. Data from the National Insurance Commission of Ghana on reported and settled claims were considered for the period…
The possibilities of the use of the coefficient of variation over a high threshold in tail modelling are discussed. The paper also considers multiple threshold tests for a generalized Pareto distribution, together with a threshold selection…
In this paper, we discuss a method to define prior distributions for the threshold of a generalised Pareto distribution, in particular when its applications are directed to heavy-tailed data. We propose to assign prior probabilities to the…
Most extreme events in real life can be faithfully modeled as random realizations from a Generalized Pareto distribution, which depends on two parameters: the scale and the shape. In many actual situations, one is mostly concerned with the…
Our primary aim is to find an estimate of the expected shortfall in various situations: (1) Nonparametric situation, when the probability distribution of the incurred loss is unknown, only satisfying some general conditions. Then, following…
It was observed that the number of cases and deaths for infectious diseases were associated with heavy-tailed power law distributions such as the Pareto distribution. While Pareto distribution was widely used to model the cases and deaths…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
This paper proposes a scoring-rule-based method for ranking predictive distributions in the Fr\'echet domain that is able to distinguish between different tail indices. The approach is built on normalized order statistics and exploits…
We develop an unsupervised mixture model for non-negative, skewed and heavy-tailed data, such as losses in actuarial and risk management applications. The mixture has a lognormal component, which is usually appropriate for the body of the…
We study the optimal decisions and equilibria of agents who aim to minimize their risks by allocating their positions over extremely heavy-tailed (i.e., infinite-mean) and possibly dependent losses. The loss distributions of our focus are…
Accurate modeling is essential in integer-valued real phenomena, including the distribution of entire data, zero-inflated (ZI) data, and discrete exceedances. The Poisson and Negative Binomial distributions, along with their ZI variants,…
In several applications, ultimately at the largest data, truncation effects can be observed when analysing tail characteristics of statistical distributions. In some cases truncation effects are forecasted through physical models such as…
The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…
It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and…
Real-world data are long-tailed, the lack of tail samples leads to a significant limitation in the generalization ability of the model. Although numerous approaches of class re-balancing perform well for moderate class imbalance problems,…
We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…
The purpose of this paper is to show that the use of heavy-tailed distributions in Financial problems is theoretically baseless and can lead to significant misunderstandings. The reason for this the authors see in an incorrect…
Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalized Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results.…