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The gaussian spread regression model for the calibration of site specific ensemble temperature forecasts depends on the apparently restrictive assumption that the uncertainty around temperature forecasts is normally distributed. We…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Stephen Jewson

Truthfulness judgments are a fundamental step in the process of fighting misinformation, as they are crucial to train and evaluate classifiers that automatically distinguish true and false statements. Usually such judgments are made by…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Kevin Roitero , Michael Soprano , Shaoyang Fan , Damiano Spina , Stefano Mizzaro , Gianluca Demartini

Crowd density level estimation is an essential aspect of crowd safety since it helps to identify areas of probable overcrowding and required conditions. Nowadays, AI systems can help in various sectors. Here for safety purposes or many for…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Mahira Arefin , Md. Anwar Hussen Wadud , Anichur Rahman

As the use of machine learning in high impact domains becomes widespread, the importance of evaluating safety has increased. An important aspect of this is evaluating how robust a model is to changes in setting or population, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Roy Adams , Suchi Saria

Estimating prevalence, the fraction of a population with a certain medical condition, is fundamental to epidemiology. Traditional methods rely on classification of test samples taken at random from a population. Such approaches to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-25 Paul Patrone , Anthony Kearsley

We study how the training data distribution affects confidence and performance in image classification models. We introduce Embedding Density, a model-agnostic framework that estimates prediction confidence by measuring the distance of test…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Maksim Kazanskii , Artem Kasianov

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee

The idea underlying the modal formulation of density-based clustering is to associate groups with the regions around the modes of the probability density function underlying the data. This correspondence between clusters and dense regions…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-01-22 Giovanna Menardi , Domenico De Stefano

An understanding of pedestrian dynamics is indispensable for numerous urban applications including the design of transportation networks and planing for business development. Pedestrian counting often requires utilizing manual or technical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Eric K. Tokuda , Yitzchak Lockerman , Gabriel B. A. Ferreira , Ethan Sorrelgreen , David Boyle , Roberto M. Cesar-Jr. , Claudio T. Silva

Facing an unknown situation, a person may not be able to firmly elicit his/her preferences over different alternatives, so he/she tends to express uncertain preferences. Given a community of different persons expressing their preferences…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-08-11 Yiru Zhang , Tassadit Bouadi , Arnaud Martin

The purpose of this paper is to study metrics suitable for assessing uncertainty of power spectra when these are based on finite second-order statistics. The family of power spectra which is consistent with a given range of values for the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-03-20 Johan Karlsson , Tryphon T. Georgiou

This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-04 Peter Kovesarki , Ian C. Brock

The evaluation of robot capabilities to navigate human crowds is essential to conceive new robots intended to operate in public spaces. This paper initiates the development of a benchmark tool to evaluate such capabilities; our long term…

Ranks estimated from data are uncertain and this poses a challenge in many applications. However, estimated ranks are deterministic functions of estimated parameters, so the uncertainty in the ranks must be determined by the uncertainty in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-22 Justin Rising

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-08-17 André Chalom , Paulo Inácio de Knegt López de Prado

In this report, we explore the data selection leading to a family of estimators maximizing a centrality. The family allows a nice properties leading to accurate and robust probability density function fitting according to some criteria we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-10 Djemel Ziou

In this article, we construct semiparametrically efficient estimators of linear functionals of a probability measure in the presence of side information using an easy empirical likelihood approach. We use estimated constraint functions and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-01 Shan Wang , Hanxiang Peng

Several different uncertain inference systems (UISs) have been developed for representing uncertainty in rule-based expert systems. Some of these, such as Mycin's Certainty Factors, Prospector, and Bayes' Networks were designed as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Ben P. Wise , Max Henrion

The ratio between two probability density functions is an important component of various tasks, including selection bias correction, novelty detection and classification. Recently, several estimators of this ratio have been proposed. Most…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-30 Rafael Izbicki , Ann B. Lee , Chad M. Schafer

We present a method of estimating the number of people in high density crowds from still images. The method estimates counts by fusing information from multiple sources. Most of the existing work on crowd counting deals with very small…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-07-31 Ankan Bansal , K. S. Venkatesh