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In this work we apply the methodology of integral priors to handle Bayesian model selection in binomial regression models with a general link function. These models are very often used to investigate associations and risks in…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-01 Diego Salmeron , Juan Antonio Cano , C. P. Robert

While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold the promise of being flexible, well-calibrated statistical models, inference often requires approximations whose consequences are poorly understood. We study the quality of common variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Andrew Y. K. Foong , David R. Burt , Yingzhen Li , Richard E. Turner

The development of biophysical models for clinical applications is rapidly advancing in the research community, thanks to their predictive nature and their ability to assist the interpretation of clinical data. However, high-resolution and…

Biopharmaceutical manufacturing is a rapidly growing industry with impact in virtually all branches of medicines. Biomanufacturing processes require close monitoring and control, in the presence of complex bioprocess dynamics with many…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Hua Zheng , Wei Xie , Ilya O. Ryzhov , Dongming Xie

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-14 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

Predictive coding (PC) is an influential computational model of visual learning and inference in the brain. Classical PC was proposed as a top-down generative model, where the brain actively predicts upcoming visual inputs, and inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Gaspard Oliviers , Mufeng Tang , Rafal Bogacz

Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Jiayi Huang , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone

This paper proposes a new statistical approach for assessing treatment effect using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The goal is to draw causal inferences from observational data with a binary outcome and discrete covariates. The BNs are here used…

Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-09 Maxwell H. Wang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Daniel Andrade , Bernhard Sick

Effective intervention strategies for epidemics rely on the identification of their origin and on the robustness of the predictions made by network disease models. We introduce a Bayesian uncertainty quantification framework to infer model…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-02 Karen Larson , Clark Bowman , Zhizhong Chen , Panagiotis Hadjidoukas , Costas Papadimitriou , Petros Koumoutsakos , Anastasios Matzavinos

In cognitive radio (CR) technology, the trend of sensing is no longer to only detect the presence of active primary users. A large number of applications demand for more comprehensive knowledge on primary user behaviors in spatial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-10 Weijia Han , Huiyan Sang , Min Sheng , Jiandong Li , Shuguang Cui

In this paper, we develop a generic methodology to encode hierarchical causality structure among observed variables into a neural network in order to improve its predictive performance. The proposed methodology, called causality-informed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Xiaoge Zhang , Xiao-Lin Wang , Fenglei Fan , Yiu-Ming Cheung , Indranil Bose

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have demonstrated promise as a framework for solving forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations. Despite recent progress in the field, it remains challenging to quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Bruno Jacob , Ashish S. Nair , Amanda A. Howard , Jan Drgona , Panos Stinis

Graphical models are widely used to make inferences concerning interplay in multivariate systems. In many applications, data are collected from multiple related but nonidentical units whose underlying networks may differ but are likely to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-04 Chris J. Oates , Jim Korkola , Joe W. Gray , Sach Mukherjee

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-22 Yingrong Wang , Haoxuan Li , Minqin Zhu , Anpeng Wu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

The characterization of drug-protein interactions is crucial in the high-throughput screening for drug discovery. The deep learning-based approaches have attracted attention because they can predict drug-protein interactions without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-22 QHwan Kim , Joon-Hyuk Ko , Sunghoon Kim , Nojun Park , Wonho Jhe

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Paul Beaumont , Michael Huth

Causal inference is capable of estimating the treatment effect (i.e., the causal effect of treatment on the outcome) to benefit the decision making in various domains. One fundamental challenge in this research is that the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Qian Li , Zhichao Wang , Shaowu Liu , Gang Li , Guandong Xu