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We investigate generically applicable and intuitively appealing prediction intervals based on $k$-fold cross validation. We focus on the conditional coverage probability of the proposed intervals, given the observations in the training…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-13 Lukas Steinberger , Hannes Leeb

Under losses which are potentially heavy-tailed, we consider the task of minimizing sums of the loss mean and standard deviation, without trying to accurately estimate the variance. By modifying a technique for variance-free robust mean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-12 Matthew J. Holland

This paper investigates the estimation problem in a regression-type model. To be able to deal with potential high dimensions, we provide a procedure called LOL, for Learning Out of Leaders with no optimization step. LOL is an auto-driven…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-01-24 Mathilde Mougeot , Dominique Picard , Karine Tribouley

Cross-validation (CV) methods are popular for selecting the tuning parameter in the high-dimensional variable selection problem. We show the mis-alignment of the CV is one possible reason of its over-selection behavior. To fix this issue,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-17 Yang Feng , Yi Yu

Prior work (Klochkov $\&$ Zhivotovskiy, 2021) establishes at most $O\left(\log (n)/n\right)$ excess risk bounds via algorithmic stability for strongly-convex learners with high probability. We show that under the similar common assumptions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Bowei Zhu , Shaojie Li , Mingyang Yi , Yong Liu

Studying unified model averaging estimation for situations with complicated data structures, we propose a novel model averaging method based on cross-validation (MACV). MACV unifies a large class of new and existing model averaging…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Dalei Yu , Xinyu Zhang , Hua Liang

Machine learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings are highly susceptible to the influence of even a small fraction of structured outliers, making robust optimization techniques essential. In particular, within the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Changyu Gao , Andrew Lowy , Xingyu Zhou , Stephen J. Wright

Many recent advances in machine learning are driven by a challenging trifecta: large data size $N$; high dimensions; and expensive algorithms. In this setting, cross-validation (CV) serves as an important tool for model assessment. Recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-03 William T. Stephenson , Madeleine Udell , Tamara Broderick

In this paper we revisit the risk bounds of the lasso estimator in the context of transductive and semi-supervised learning. In other terms, the setting under consideration is that of regression with random design under partial labeling.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-09 Pierre C. Bellec , Arnak S. Dalalyan , Edwin Grappin , Quentin Paris

When evaluating the clinical performance of a medical imaging device, a multi-reader multi-case (MRMC) analysis is usually applied to account for both case and reader variability. For a clinical task that equates to a quantitative…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-20 Si Wen , Brandon D. Gallas

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted in high-stakes scenarios, yet their safety mechanisms often remain fragile. Simple jailbreak prompts or even benign fine-tuning can bypass these protocols, underscoring the need to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Ching-Chia Kao , Chia-Mu Yu , Chun-Shien Lu , Chu-Song Chen

``Localization'' has proven to be a valuable tool in the Statistical Learning literature as it allows sharp risk bounds in terms of the problem geometry. Localized bounds seem to be much less exploited in the Stochastic Optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-30 Roberto I. Oliveira , Philip Thompson

Foundation models often generate unreliable answers, while heuristic uncertainty estimators fail to fully distinguish correct from incorrect outputs, causing users to accept erroneous answers without any statistical guarantee. We address…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Zhiyuan Wang , Aniri , Tianlong Chen , Yue Zhang , Heng Tao Shen , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu

We axiomatically introduce risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures defined on multidimensional risks. This class consists of those conditional systemic risk measures which can be decomposed into a state-wise conditional…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-27 Hannes Hoffmann , Thilo Meyer-Brandis , Gregor Svindland

The linear regression model with a random variable (RV) measurement matrix, where the mean of the random measurement matrix has full column rank, has been extensively studied. In particular, the quasiconvexity of the maximum likelihood…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-16 Ruohai Guo , Jiang Zhu , Xing Jiang , Fengzhong Qu

We develop a uniform inference theory for high-dimensional slope parameters in threshold regression models, allowing for either cross-sectional or time series data. We first establish oracle inequalities for prediction errors, and L1…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-16 Jiatong Li , Hongqiang Yan

Automatic Short Answer Grading (ASAG) with generative large language models (LLMs) has recently demonstrated strong performance without task-specific fine-tuning, while also enabling the generation of synthetic feedback for educational…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Longwei Cong , Sonja Hahn , Sebastian Gombert , Leon Camus , Hendrik Drachsler , Ulf Kroehne

Confidence interval procedures used in low dimensional settings are often inappropriate for high dimensional applications. When a large number of parameters are estimated, marginal confidence intervals associated with the most significant…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-24 Jean Morrison , Noah Simon

A common approach to statistical learning with big-data is to randomly split it among $m$ machines and learn the parameter of interest by averaging the $m$ individual estimates. In this paper, focusing on empirical risk minimization, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-14 Jonathan Rosenblatt , Boaz Nadler

We study the regret guarantee for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RSRL) via distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) methods. In particular, we consider finite episodic Markov decision processes whose objective is the entropic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-26 Hao Liang , Zhi-Quan Luo
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