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Humans and other animals behave as if we perform fast Bayesian inference underlying decisions and movement control given uncertain sense data. Here we show that a biophysically realistic model of the subthreshold membrane potential of a…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2014-06-20 Michael G. Paulin , Andre van Schaik

Decisions based partly or solely on predictions from probabilistic models may be sensitive to model misspecification. Statisticians are taught from an early stage that "all models are wrong", but little formal guidance exists on how to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-09 James Watson , Chris Holmes

Process-oriented theories of cognition must be evaluated against time-ordered observations. Here we present a representative example for data assimilation of the SWIFT model, a dynamical model of the control of spatial fixation position and…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-10-23 Stefan A. Seelig , Maximilian M. Rabe , Noa Malem-Shinitski , Sarah Risse , Sebastian Reich , Ralf Engbert

The application of learning-based control methods in robotics presents significant challenges. One is that model-free reinforcement learning algorithms use observation data with low sample efficiency. To address this challenge, a prevalent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Andrey Gorodetskiy , Konstantin Mironov , Aleksandr Panov

Parallel recordings of neural spike counts have revealed the existence of context-dependent noise correlations in neural populations. Theories of population coding have also shown that such correlations can impact the information encoded by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Sacha Sokoloski , Ruben Coen-Cagli

Distribution shifts have long been regarded as troublesome external forces that a decision-maker should either counteract or conform to. An intriguing feedback phenomenon termed decision dependence arises when the deployed decision affects…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Zhiyu He , Saverio Bolognani , Florian Dörfler , Michael Muehlebach

In many areas of the brain, neural spiking activity covaries with features of the external world, such as sensory stimuli or an animal's movement. Experimental findings suggest that the variability of neural activity changes over time and…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-11 Ganchao Wei , Ian H. Stevenson

Continuous control of non-stationary environments is a major challenge for deep reinforcement learning algorithms. The time-dependency of the state transition dynamics aggravates the notorious stability problems of model-free deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Abdullah Akgül , Gulcin Baykal , Manuel Haußmann , Melih Kandemir

We study the problem of estimating a continuous ability parameter from sequential binary responses by actively asking questions with varying difficulties, a setting that arises naturally in adaptive testing and online preference learning.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Sanghwa Kim , Dohyun Ahn , Seungki Min

Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 A. Vazquez , J. Gama Oliveira , Z. Dezso , K. -I. Goh , I. Kondor , A. -L. Barabasi

Psychometric functions typically characterize binary sensory decisions along a single stimulus dimension. However, real-life sensory tasks vary along a greater variety of dimensions (e.g. color, contrast and luminance for visual stimuli).…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2023-02-03 Stephen Keeley , Benjamin Letham , Chase Tymms , Craig Sanders , Michael Shvartsman

A common approach to solving physical reasoning tasks is to train a value learner on example tasks. A limitation of such an approach is that it requires learning about object dynamics solely from reward values assigned to the final state of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-03 Eltayeb Ahmed , Anton Bakhtin , Laurens van der Maaten , Rohit Girdhar

We consider a simulation optimization problem for a context-dependent decision-making, which aims to determine the top-m designs for all contexts. Under a Bayesian framework, we formulate the optimal dynamic sampling decision as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-12 Gongbo Zhang , Sihua Chen , Kuihua Huang , Yijie Peng

Physical dynamical systems can be viewed as natural information processors: their systems preserve, transform, and disperse input information. This perspective motivates learning not only from data generated by such systems, but also how to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Felix Köster , Atsushi Uchida

To better characterize the statistical processes underlying human decision-making, we performed experiments where human participants visualized fluctuations of physical nonequilibrium stationary states, and we analyzed responses in the…

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-12 Adrian E Radillo , Alan Veliz-Cuba , Kresimir Josic , Zachary P Kilpatrick

Agents learning to act autonomously in real-world domains must acquire a model of the dynamics of the domain in which they operate. Learning domain dynamics can be challenging, especially where an agent only has partial access to the world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Kira Mourao , Luke S. Zettlemoyer , Ronald P. A. Petrick , Mark Steedman

This paper studies a class of consensus dynamics where the interactions between agents are affected by a time-varying unknown scaling factor. This situation is encountered in the control of robotic fleets over a wireless network or in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-14 Zoltan Nagy , Irinel-Constantin Morarescu , Lucian Busoniu

In order to interact intelligently with objects in the world, animals must first transform neural population responses into estimates of the dynamic, unknown stimuli which caused them. The Bayesian solution to this problem is known as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Sacha Sokoloski

The dynamics of many social, technological and economic phenomena are driven by individual human actions, turning the quantitative understanding of human behavior into a central question of modern science. Current models of human dynamics,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Albert-László Barabási
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