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Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Justin Finkel , Dorian Abbot , Jonathan Weare

Large deviations for additive path functionals of stochastic dynamics and related numerical approaches have attracted significant recent research interest. We focus on the question of convergence properties for cloning algorithms in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-07-21 Letizia Angeli , Stefan Grosskinsky , Adam M. Johansen , Andrea Pizzoferrato

The dynamics of a one-dimensional stochastic system of classical particles consisting of asymmetric death and branching processes is studied. The dynamical activity, defined as the number of configuration changes in a dynamical trajectory,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-22 Pegah Torkaman , Farhad H. Jafarpour

This article focuses, in the context of epidemic models, on rare events that may possibly correspond to crisis situations from the perspective of Public Health. In general, no close analytic form for their occurrence probabilities is…

Applications · Statistics 2013-08-28 Stéphan Clémençon , Anthony Cousien , Miraine Dávila Felipe , Viet Chi Tran

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

Active matter represents a broad class of systems that evolve far from equilibrium due to the local injection of energy. Like their passive analogues, transformations between distinct metastable states in active matter proceed through rare…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-17 Avishek Das , Benjamin Kuznets-Speck , David T. Limmer

Thermodynamic conventions suffer from describing dynamical distinctions, especially when the structural and energetic changes induced by localized rare events are insignificant. By using the ensemble theory in the trajectory space, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-30 Qi-Jun Ye , Xin-Zheng Li

Large deviations for additive path functionals of stochastic processes have attracted significant research interest, in particular in the context of stochastic particle systems and statistical physics. Efficient numerical `cloning'…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Letizia Angeli , Stefan Grosskinsky , Adam M. Johansen

Finding and sampling rare trajectories in dynamical systems is a difficult computational task underlying numerous problems and applications. In this paper we show how to construct Metropolis- Hastings Monte Carlo methods that can…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-10-16 Jorge C. Leitao , Joao M. Viana Parente Lopes , Eduardo G. Altmann

We describe collective-move Monte Carlo algorithms designed to approximate the overdamped dynamics of self-assembling nanoscale components equipped with strong, short-ranged and anisotropic interactions. Conventional Monte Carlo simulations…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-04-16 Stephen Whitelam

Dynamical phase transitions (DPTs) characterize critical changes in system behavior occurring at finite times, providing a lens to study nonequilibrium phenomena beyond conventional equilibrium physics. While extensively studied in quantum…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-12-10 Jiazhen Liu , Nathaniel M. Aden , Debasish Sarker , Chaoming Song

Rare events in non-linear dynamical systems are difficult to sample because of the sensitivity to perturbations of initial conditions and of complex landscapes in phase space. Here we discuss strategies to control these difficulties and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-04-18 Jorge C. Leitao , Joao M. V. P. Lopes , Eduardo G. Altmann

Spontaneous structural rearrangements play a central role in the organization and function of complex biomolecular systems. In principle, physics-based computer simulations like Molecular Dynamics (MD) enable us to investigate these…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-19 Danial Ghamari , Philipp Hauke , Roberto Covino , Pietro Faccioli

The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Malik Hassanaly , Venkat Raman

We overview the concept of dynamical phase transitions in isolated quantum systems quenched out of equilibrium. We focus on non-equilibrium transitions characterized by an order parameter, which features qualitatively distinct temporal…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-25 Jamir Marino , Martin Eckstein , Matthew S. Foster , Ana Maria Rey

Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-16 Yuanqi Du , Jiajun He , Dinghuai Zhang , Eric Vanden-Eijnden , Carles Domingo-Enrich

Due to the deterministic nature of chaotic systems, fluctuations in their trajectories arise solely from the choice of initial conditions. Some of these dynamical fluctuations may lead to extremely unlikely scenarios. Understanding the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-23 Yllari K. González-Koda , Ricardo Gutiérrez , Carlos Pérez-Espigares

A numerical simulation method, based on Dang et al.'s self-consistent theory of large-amplitude collective motion, for rare transition events is presented. The method provides a one-dimensional pathway without knowledge of the final…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-05-20 Kyosuke Tsumura , Yoshitaka Maeda , Hiroyuki Watanabe

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-13 Santhosh Narayanan , Carsten Maple , Mark Hooper

Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Carsten Hartmann , Annika Jöster , Christof Schütte , Alexander Sikorski , Marcus Weber