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In the field of uncertainty quantification, sparse polynomial chaos (PC) expansions are commonly used by researchers for a variety of purposes, such as surrogate modeling. Ideas from compressed sensing may be employed to exploit this…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-09 Paul Diaz , Alireza Doostan , Jerrad Hampton

Real-time tsunami early warning relies on distributed sensor networks to infer seismic sources and seafloor motion. Optimizing these networks via Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) is exceptionally challenging for systems governed…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Sreeram Venkat , Stefan Henneking , Omar Ghattas

Model overconfidence and poor calibration are common in machine learning and difficult to account for when applying standard empirical risk minimization. In this work, we propose a novel method to alleviate these problems that we call…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Lukas Muttenthaler , Robert A. Vandermeulen , Qiuyi Zhang , Thomas Unterthiner , Klaus-Robert Müller

Traditional reduced order modeling techniques such as the reduced basis (RB) method (relying, e.g., on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)) suffer from severe limitations when dealing with nonlinear time-dependent parametrized PDEs,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-14 Stefania Fresca , Luca Dede , Andrea Manzoni

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) of experiments. This requires a likelihood estimate, which in many settings is intractable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides powerful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Samuel Klein , Willie Neiswanger , Daniel Ratner , Michael Kagan , Sean Gasiorowski

This work presents a novel and effective method for fitting multidimensional ellipsoids to scattered data in the contamination of noise and outliers. We approach the problem as a Bayesian parameter estimate process and maximize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Zhao Mingyang , Jia Xiaohong , Ma Lei , Shi Yuke , Jiang Jingen , Li Qizhai , Yan Dong-Ming , Huang Tiejun

Nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) are used to model dynamical processes in a large number of scientific fields, ranging from finance to biology. In many applications standard local models are not sufficient to accurately…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-05-10 Victor Boussange , Sebastian Becker , Arnulf Jentzen , Benno Kuckuck , Loïc Pellissier

This paper presents a novel non-linear model reduction method: Probabilistic Manifold Decomposition (PMD), which provides a powerful framework for constructing non-intrusive reduced-order models (ROMs) by embedding a high-dimensional system…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-09 Jiaming Guo , Dunhui Xiao

Moment-based distributionally robust optimization (DRO) provides an optimization framework to integrate statistical information with traditional optimization approaches. Under this framework, one assumes that the underlying joint…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-01 Shiyi Jiang , Jianqiang Cheng , Kai Pan , Zuo-Jun Max Shen

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a framework that uses statistical models and decision making under uncertainty to optimise the cost and performance of a scientific experiment. Sequential BED, as opposed to static BED, considers the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-23 Steven Kleinegesse , Christopher Drovandi , Michael U. Gutmann

Control Co-Design (CCD) considers the coupled effects of both the plant and control parameters to optimize a system's closed-loop transient performance during the design stage. This paper presents a new method for CCD with guarantees on…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-19 Trevor J. Bird , Jacob A. Siefert , Herschel C. Pangborn , Neera Jain

Quasi-experimental evaluations are central for generating real-world causal evidence and complementing insights from randomized trials. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to estimate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani , Stefan Wager

Structural identifiability is a property of an ODE model with parameters that allows for the parameters to be determined from continuous noise-free data. This is a natural prerequisite for practical identifiability. Conducting multiple…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2021-08-18 Alexey Ovchinnikov , Anand Pillay , Gleb Pogudin , Thomas Scanlon

Neural networks (NNs) can achieved high performance in various fields such as computer vision, and natural language processing. However, deploying NNs in resource-constrained safety-critical systems has challenges due to uncertainty in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Soyed Tuhin Ahmed

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a tool for guiding experiments founded on the principle of expected information gain. I.e., which experiment design will inform the most about the model can be predicted before experiments in a…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2019-09-10 Eric A. Walker , Kishore Ravisankar

We study a class of stochastic optimal design problems for elliptic partial differential equations in divergence form, where the coefficients represent mixtures of two conducting materials. The objective is to minimize a generalized risk…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Amal Alphonse , Petar Kunštek , Marko Vrdoljak

For a machine learning model deployed in real world scenarios, the ability of detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is indispensable and challenging. Most existing OOD detection methods focused on exploring advanced training skills or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Chao Chen , Zhihang Fu , Kai Liu , Ze Chen , Mingyuan Tao , Jieping Ye

An efficient computational approach for optimal reconstruction of binary-type images suitable for models in various applications including biomedical imaging is developed and validated. The methodology includes derivative-free optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Paul R. Arbic , Vladislav Bukshtynov

Embedding nonlinear dynamical systems into artificial neural networks is a powerful new formalism for machine learning. By parameterizing ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as neural network layers, these Neural ODEs are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Mikko Lehtimäki , Lassi Paunonen , Marja-Leena Linne

History-dependent constitutive models serve as macroscopic closures for the aggregated effects of micromechanics. Their parameters are typically learned from experimental data. With a limited experimental budget, eliciting the full range of…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-04-28 Kaushik Bhattacharya , Lianghao Cao , Andrew Stuart
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