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Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Naoufal Acharki , Ramiro Lugo , Antoine Bertoncello , Josselin Garnier

Analysis of effect heterogeneity at the group level is standard practice in empirical treatment evaluation. However, treatments analyzed are often aggregates of multiple underlying treatments which are themselves heterogeneous, e.g.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-27 Phillip Heiler , Michael C. Knaus

A central question in many fields of scientific research is to determine how an outcome would be affected by an action, or to measure the effect of an action (a.k.a treatment effect). In recent years, a need for estimating the heterogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Weijia Zhang , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu

With an increasing focus on precision medicine in medical research, numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to clarify the relationship between treatment effects and patient characteristics. The treatment effects for patients…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

Policy evaluation in empirical microeconomics has been focusing on estimating the average treatment effect and more recently the heterogeneous treatment effects, often relying on the unconfoundedness assumption. We propose a method based on…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-06 Wei Tian

This paper introduces a scalable causal inference framework for estimating the immediate, session-level effects of on-demand human tutoring embedded within adaptive learning systems. Because students seek assistance at moments of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Kirk Vanacore , Danielle R Thomas , Digory Smith , Bibi Groot , Justin Reich , Rene Kizilcec

Analyses of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) are common in applied causal inference research. However, when outcomes are latent variables assessed via psychometric instruments such as educational tests, standard methods ignore the…

Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-07 Xinkun Nie , Stefan Wager

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is an important problem across many domains. In order to accurately estimate such treatment effects, one typically relies on data from observational studies or randomized experiments. Currently,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-28 Tobias Hatt , Jeroen Berrevoets , Alicia Curth , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mihaela van der Schaar

Randomized experimentation (also known as A/B testing or bucket testing) is widely used in the internet industry to measure the metric impact obtained by different treatment variants. A/B tests identify the treatment variant showing the…

We investigate how to exploit structural similarities of an individual's potential outcomes (POs) under different treatments to obtain better estimates of conditional average treatment effects in finite samples. Especially when it is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-26 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

In the fight against hard-to-treat diseases such as cancer, it is often difficult to discover new treatments that benefit all subjects. For regulatory agency approval, it is more practical to identify subgroups of subjects for whom the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-09 Wei-Yin Loh , Xu He , Michael Man

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction of individualized treatment effects. While there is a rapidly growing literature on the development of such models, there is little literature on the evaluation of their…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-22 J Hoogland , O Efthimiou , TL Nguyen , TPA Debray

Empirical studies using Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often explore heterogeneous treatment effects based on pretreatment covariates, even though no formal statistical methods exist for such analyses. This has led to the widespread…

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

Treatment effect heterogeneity is of a great concern when evaluating policy impact: "is the treatment Pareto-improving?", "what is the proportion of people who are better off under the treatment?", etc. However, even in the simple case of a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Myungkou Shin

Targeting and personalization policies can be used to improve outcomes beyond the uniform policy that assigns the best performing treatment in an A/B test to everyone. Personalization relies on the presence of heterogeneity of treatment…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-12 Anya Shchetkina

Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-19 Matthew James Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden

Applied researchers are increasingly interested in whether and how treatment effects vary in randomized evaluations, especially variation not explained by observed covariates. We propose a model-free approach for testing for the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-17 Peng Ding , Avi Feller , Luke Miratrix
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