Related papers: Minimax Testing of Identity to a Reference Ergodic…
We revisit the symbolic verification of Markov chains with respect to finite horizon reachability properties. The prevalent approach iteratively computes step-bounded state reachability probabilities. By contrast, recent advances in…
Empirical likelihood is a powerful semi-parametric method increasingly investigated in the literature. However, most authors essentially focus on an i.i.d. setting. In the case of dependent data, the classical empirical likelihood method…
The goal of this paper is to develop a general method to establish conditional ergodicity of infinite-dimensional Markov chains. Given a Markov chain in a product space, we aim to understand the ergodic properties of its conditional…
This study explores a Gaussian quasi-likelihood approach for estimating parameters of diffusion processes with Markovian regime switching. Assuming the ergodicity under high-frequency sampling, we will show the asymptotic normality of the…
In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…
The shortest-path, commute time, and diffusion distances on undirected graphs have been widely employed in applications such as dimensionality reduction, link prediction, and trip planning. Increasingly, there is interest in using…
Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which automatically tune their parameters based on past samples, have proved extremely useful in practice. The self-tuning mechanism makes them `non-Markovian', which means that their…
We study the question of identity testing for structured distributions. More precisely, given samples from a {\em structured} distribution $q$ over $[n]$ and an explicit distribution $p$ over $[n]$, we wish to distinguish whether $q=p$…
We prove that for a random walk on the real line whose increments have zero mean and are either integer-valued or spread out (i.e. the distributions of the steps of the walk are eventually non-singular), the Markov chain of overshoots above…
The development of algorithms for unsupervised pattern recognition by nonlinear clustering is a notable problem in data science. Markov clustering (MCL) is a renowned algorithm that simulates stochastic flows on a network of sample…
We consider the problem of approximating the reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDP) with uncountable (continuous) state and action spaces. While there are algorithms that, for special classes of such MDP, provide a…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has transformed Bayesian model inference over the past three decades: mainly because of this, Bayesian inference is now a workhorse of applied scientists. Under general conditions, MCMC sampling converges…
Many product lines are critical, and therefore reliability is a vital part of their requirements. Reliability is a probabilistic property. We therefore propose a model for feature-aware discrete-time Markov chains as a basis for verifying…
We consider a Markov chain $(x_n)$ whose kernel is indexed by a scaling parameter $\gamma>0$, refered to as the step size. The aim is to analyze the behavior of the Markov chain in the doubly asymptotic regime where $n\to\infty$ then…
The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…
Given a finite-valued sample $X_1,...,X_n$ we wish to test whether it was generated by a stationary ergodic process belonging to a family $H_0$, or it was generated by a stationary ergodic process outside $H_0$. We require the Type I error…
Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…
We study the large deviations of Markov chains under the sole assumption that the state space is discrete. In particular, we do not require any of the usual irreducibility and exponential tightness assumptions. Using subadditive arguments,…
Most successful applications of deep learning involve similar training and test conditions. However, tasks such as biological sequence design involve searching for sequences that improve desirable properties beyond previously known values,…
We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a…