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Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Graham Gibson

Sampling-based planning is the predominant paradigm for motion planning in robotics. Most sampling-based planners use a global random sampling scheme to guarantee probabilistic completeness. However, most schemes are often inefficient as…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Tin Lai , Philippe Morere , Fabio Ramos , Gilad Francis

We derive, using functional methods and the bias expansion, the conditional likelihood for observing a specific tracer field given an underlying matter field. This likelihood is necessary for Bayesian-inference methods. If we neglect all…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-06 Giovanni Cabass , Fabian Schmidt

In many applications involving spatial point patterns, we find evidence of inhibition or repulsion. The most commonly used class of models for such settings are the Gibbs point processes. A recent alternative, at least to the statistical…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-29 Shinichiro Shirota , Alan. E. Gelfand

We propose a computational model of visual search that incorporates Bayesian interpretations of the neural mechanisms that underlie categorical perception and saccade planning. To enable meaningful comparisons between simulated and human…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-06-08 Maell Cullen , Jonathan Monney , M. Berk Mirza , Rosalyn Moran

Object tracking is one of the fundamental problems in visual recognition tasks and has achieved significant improvements in recent years. The achievements often come with the price of enormous hardware consumption and expensive labor effort…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Yan Shen , Zhanghexuan Ji , Chunwei Ma , Mingchen Gao

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

In a published paper [Sengupta, 2016], we have proposed that the brain (and other self-organized biological and artificial systems) can be characterized via the mathematical apparatus of a gauge theory. The picture that emerges from this…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2017-11-15 Biswa Sengupta , Karl Friston

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-13 Luis G. Leon-Novelo , Terrance D. Savitsky

This paper presents a general asymptotic theory of sequential Bayesian estimation giving results for the strongest, almost sure convergence. We show that under certain smoothness conditions on the probability model, the greedy information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-11 Janne V. Kujala

Test-time adaptation with pre-trained vision-language models, such as CLIP, aims to adapt the model to new, potentially out-of-distribution test data. Existing methods calculate the similarity between visual embedding and learnable class…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Lihua Zhou , Mao Ye , Shuaifeng Li , Nianxin Li , Xiatian Zhu , Lei Deng , Hongbin Liu , Zhen Lei

Prompt learning is a popular fine-tuning method for vision-language models due to its efficiency. It requires a small number of additional learnable parameters while significantly enhancing performance on target tasks. However, most…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Mingyu Kim , Jongwoo Ko , Mijung Park

The problem of sequentially transferring from a source object track and a model to another Bayesian filter has become ubiquitous. Due to the lack of a structural model that can capture the dependence among different models, the transfer may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Bahman Moraffah , Antonia Papandreou-Suppappola

We describe a Bayesian approach to estimating luminosity functions. We derive the likelihood function and posterior probability distribution for the luminosity function, given the observed data, and we compare the Bayesian approach with…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Brandon C. Kelly , Xiaohui Fan , Marianne Vestergaard

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-29 Tiep Mai , Simon Wilson

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Joe Watson , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

The popularity of Bayesian optimization methods for efficient exploration of parameter spaces has lead to a series of papers applying Gaussian processes as surrogates in the optimization of functions. However, most proposed approaches only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-16 Javier González , Zhenwen Dai , Philipp Hennig , Neil D. Lawrence

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Manuel Gloeckler , Shoji Toyota , Kenji Fukumizu , Jakob H. Macke

Domain similarity measures can be used to gauge adaptability and select suitable data for transfer learning, but existing approaches define ad hoc measures that are deemed suitable for respective tasks. Inspired by work on curriculum…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-07-18 Sebastian Ruder , Barbara Plank

An important problem for HCI researchers is to estimate the parameter values of a cognitive model from behavioral data. This is a difficult problem, because of the substantial complexity and variety in human behavioral strategies. We report…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2017-01-16 Antti Kangasrääsiö , Kumaripaba Athukorala , Andrew Howes , Jukka Corander , Samuel Kaski , Antti Oulasvirta