Related papers: Stochastic Gradient MCMC for Nonlinear State Space…

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is a popular class of algorithms for scalable Bayesian inference. However, these algorithms include hyperparameters such as step size or batch size that influence the accuracy of…

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the…

Gaussian and discrete non-Gaussian spatial datasets are common across fields like public health, ecology, geosciences, and social sciences. Bayesian spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are a flexible class of models for…

In this paper, we propose a novel method of model-based time series clustering with mixtures of general state space models (MSSMs). Each component of MSSMs is associated with each cluster. An advantage of the proposed method is that it…

State-space models are ubiquitous in the statistical literature since they provide a flexible and interpretable framework for analyzing many time series. In most practical applications, the state-space model is specified through a…

Stochastic Gradient (SG) Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) are popular algorithms for Bayesian sampling in the presence of large datasets. However, they come with little theoretical guarantees and assessing their empirical…

Deep state-space models (Deep SSMs) are becoming popular as effective approaches to model sequence data. They have also been shown to be capable of in-context learning, much like transformers. However, a complete picture of how SSMs might…

Markov state models (MSMs) have been successful in computing metastable states, slow relaxation timescales and associated structural changes, and stationary or kinetic experimental observables of complex molecules from large amounts of…

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian…

We present a variational method for online state estimation and parameter learning in state-space models (SSMs), a ubiquitous class of latent variable models for sequential data. As per standard batch variational techniques, we use…

State space models (SSMs) are widely used to describe dynamic systems. However, when the likelihood of the observations is intractable, parameter inference for SSMs cannot be easily carried out using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo or…

The embedded hidden Markov model (EHMM) sampling method is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models which was proposed in Neal (2003); Neal et al. (2004) and extended in…

Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…

The state-space model and the Kalman filter provide us with unified and computationaly efficient procedure for computing the log-likelihood of the diverse type of time series models. This paper presents an algorithm for computing the…

Stochastic gradient descent method and its variants constitute the core optimization algorithms that achieve good convergence rates for solving machine learning problems. These rates are obtained especially when these algorithms are…

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters…

State-space models (SSM) are central to describe time-varying complex systems in countless signal processing applications such as remote sensing, networks, biomedicine, and finance to name a few. Inference and prediction in SSMs are…