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The event of large losses plays an important role in credit risk. As these large losses are typically rare, and portfolios usually consist of a large number of positions, large deviation theory is the natural tool to analyze the tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-03 Vincent Leijdekker , Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

We consider a class of slow-fast processes on a connected complete Riemannian manifold $M$.The limiting dynamics as the scale separation goes to $\infty$ is governed by the averaging principle. Around this limit, we prove large deviation…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-11 Yanyan Hu , Richard C. Kraaij , Fubao Xi

We establish large deviation principles (LDPs) for empirical measures associated with a sequence of Gibbs distributions on $n$-particle configurations, each of which is defined in terms of an inverse temperature $% \beta_n$ and an energy…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Paul Dupuis , Vaios Laschos , Kavita Ramanan

Combining the increasing availability and abundance of healthcare data and the current advances in machine learning methods have created renewed opportunities to improve clinical decision support systems. However, in healthcare risk…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-17 Zidi Xiu , Chenyang Tao , Michael Gao , Connor Davis , Benjamin A. Goldstein , Ricardo Henao

Moderate deviation principles for empirical measure processes associated with weakly interacting Markov processes are established. Two families of models are considered: the first corresponds to a system of interacting diffusions whereas…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-09 Amarjit Budhiraja , Ruoyu Wu

In this paper we prove a large deviation principle (LDP) for the empirical measure of a general system of mean-field interacting diffusions with singular drift (as the number of particles tends to infinity) and show convergence to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-02 Jasper Hoeksema , Thomas Holding , Mario Maurelli , Oliver Tse

We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-22 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini , Jeroen Wouters

We study the large deviations of current-type observables defined for Markov diffusion processes evolving in smooth bounded regions of $\mathbb{R}^d$ with reflections at the boundaries. We derive for these the correct boundary conditions…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-22 Emil Mallmin , Johan du Buisson , Hugo Touchette

The Large Deviations Principle (LDP) is verified for a homogeneous diffusion process with respect to a Brownian motion $B_t$, $$ X^\eps_t=x_0+\int_0^tb(X^\eps_s)ds+ \eps\int_0^t\sigma(X^\eps_s)dB_s, $$ where $b(x)$ and $\sigma(x)$ are are…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-24 P. Chigansky , R. Liptser

In this paper, we prove the moderate deviations principle (MDP) for a general system of slow-fast dynamics. We provide a unified approach, based on weak convergence ideas and stochastic control arguments, that cover both the averaging and…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-02 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We expand on a previous study of fronts in finite particle number reaction-diffusion systems in the presence of a reaction rate gradient in the direction of the front motion. We study the system via reaction-diffusion equations, using the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Elisheva Cohen , David A. Kessler , Herbert Levine

In this paper, we prove a large deviation principle for the empirical measures of a system of weakly interacting diffusion with reflection. We adopt the weak convergence approach. To make this approach work, we show that the sequence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-04 Ping Cheng , Rong Wei , Tusheng Zhang

We obtain large deviation results for a two time-scale model of jump-diffusion processes. The processes on the two time scales are fully inter-dependent, the slow process has small perturbative noise and the fast process is ergodic. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-19 Rohini Kumar , Lea Popovic

For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameter is totally different in the stable, unstable, and explosive cases. Notwithstanding of this trichotomy, we investigate…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-28 Bernard Bercu , Laure Coutin , Nicolas Savy

We prove a large deviation principle and give an expression for the rate function, for the last passage time in a Bernoulli environment. The model is exactly solvable and its invariant version satisfies a Burke-type property. Finally, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-29 Federico Ciech , Nicos Georgiou

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

The large deviation principle is established for the distributions of a class of generalized stochastic porous media equations for both small noise and short time.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Michael Röckner , Feng-Yu Wang , Liming Wu

In the framework of Harnack type Dirichlet forms, we prove a large deviation principle for the asymptotics of reversible Markov processes with rate function given by the energy of the paths.

Probability · Mathematics 2009-07-28 Ann-Kathrin Jarecki

Large deviation principles are established for the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution and two-parameter Dirichlet process when parameter $\theta$ approaches infinity. The motivation for these results is to understand the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Shui Feng

We study large deviations in the Langevin dynamics, with damping of order $\e^{-1}$ and noise of order $1$, as $\e\downarrow 0$. The damping coefficient is assumed to be state dependent. We proceed first with a change of time and then, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-30 Sandra Cerrai , Mark Freidlin
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